AAVE (AAVE) 价格分析与预测：涨势会持续吗？

加密货币市场继续下行，延续了自 7 月 22 日以来的跌势。市场价值已下跌约 3%，大多数加密货币交易均出现亏损。

The cryptocurrency market faced a downturn on Aug. 1, extending losses that began on July 22. The market shed about 3% of its value as most cryptocurrencies traded in the red.

加密货币市场在 8 月 1 日遭遇低迷，延续了 7 月 22 日开始的跌势。由于大多数加密货币交易出现亏损，市场价值下跌了约 3%。

However, AAVE stood out with a significant gain of nearly 9% over the past 24 hours. As the broader market encountered difficulties, AAVE’s contrarian performance raised questions about its potential drivers.

然而，AAVE 脱颖而出，在过去 24 小时内大幅上涨近 9%。随着大盘遇到困难，AAVE 的逆势表现引发了对其潜在驱动力的质疑。

A closer look at the derivatives market could help uncover some key factors. Data from CoinGlass for July 31 and Aug. 1 showed a substantial imbalance in liquidations, with short positions accounting for a hefty $1.165 million compared to $597,000 in long positions.

仔细研究衍生品市场可能有助于发现一些关键因素。 CoinGlass 7 月 31 日和 8 月 1 日的数据显示，清算情况严重失衡，空头头寸高达 116.5 万美元，而多头头寸为 59.7 万美元。

Moreover, a dramatic spike in open interest was evident, rising to $124.59 million on July 31 from a low of $80 million. This surge, which represents the total number of outstanding derivative contracts yet to be settled, indicated a significant amount of leverage currently at play in the market.

此外，未平仓合约大幅飙升，7 月 31 日从 8,000 万美元的低点增至 1.2459 亿美元。这一激增代表了尚未结算的未偿还衍生品合约总数，表明目前市场上存在大量杠杆作用。

The current open interest levels are also notably higher than those observed in March 2023, when AAVE’s price was trading at about $90. This historical context could present interesting implications for AAVE’s price trajectory in the current market environment.

目前的未平仓合约水平也明显高于 2023 年 3 月观察到的水平，当时 AAVE 的交易价格约为 90 美元。这一历史背景可能会对当前市场环境下 AAVE 的价格轨迹产生有趣的影响。

AAVE hit a yearly peak of $155 on March 12, following an uptrend that began in mid-June from a support level of around $50. This uptrend formed a five-wave pattern, signaling a new bullish phase.

继 6 月中旬从 50 美元左右的支撑位开始上升趋势后，AAVE 于 3 月 12 日触及 155 美元的年度峰值。这一上升趋势形成了五浪模式，标志着新的看涨阶段。

Subsequently, the price entered a corrective stage, dropping to $72 by April 13. This level was retested on July 5, completing a five-wave ABCDE correction within a descending triangle. The following rise suggests the beginning of a new bullish phase, as we saw a breakout above its descending flat triangle.

随后，价格进入修正阶段，到4月13日跌至72美元。7月5日重新测试该水平，完成下降三角形内的五波ABCDE修正。接下来的上涨表明新的看涨阶段的开始，因为我们看到突破了下降的扁平三角形。

Today, AAVE reached a higher high than its July 14 one and slightly surpassed its May 27 one, which is labeled as the D wave from the ABCDE correction. This rise started on July 25, as the price retraced to 0.618 Fibonacci level after its initial breakout uptrend.

今天，AAVE 达到了高于 7 月 14 日高点的高度，并略高于 5 月 27 日的高点，这被标记为 ABCDE 修正的 D 浪。这次上涨始于 7 月 25 日，当时价格在最初突破上升趋势后回升至 0.618 斐波那契水平。

A closer examination of AAVE’s hourly chart reveals a period of consolidation, characterized by a zig-zag pattern, before the price surged upward today. This price action suggests that AAVE is gearing up for its next move.

仔细观察 AAVE 的小时图，可以发现在今天价格飙升之前，存在一段以锯齿形形态为特征的盘整期。这一价格走势表明 AAVE 正在为下一步行动做准备。

The daily chart, however, presents a more nuanced picture. The RSI is approaching overbought territory, which could indicate a potential reversal on the horizon. Nevertheless, the overall structure of the chart remains bullish, suggesting that AAVE's uptrend is still intact.

然而，日线图呈现出更为微妙的情况。 RSI 正在接近超买区域，这可能表明即将出现潜在的逆转。尽管如此，图表的整体结构仍然看涨，表明 AAVE 的上升趋势仍然完好无损。

There are two possibilities ahead. The first scenario suggests that AAVE has marked a third wave of a developing five-wave impulse, which began on July 25. If this scenario plays out, AAVE is likely to break above $120 and continue its ascent toward the $140 area, coinciding with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.

前面有两种可能性。第一种情况表明，AAVE 已标志着 7 月 25 日开始的五波冲击中的第三波。如果这种情况发生，AAVE 可能会突破 120 美元，并继续向 140 美元区域攀升，与1.618 斐波那契扩展。

The alternative scenario presents a more cautious view. According to this possibility, the rise from July 25 represents a lower-degree B wave within a still-developing ABC pattern.

另一种情况则呈现出更为谨慎的观点。根据这种可能性，7月25日以来的上涨代表了仍在发展的ABC形态中的较低程度的B浪。

This would imply that the price action from July 15 to July 25 was the first wave of a larger corrective pattern. If this scenario unfolds, AAVE may experience another decline to $100 or slightly below before resuming its upward trajectory.

这意味着 7 月 15 日至 7 月 25 日的价格走势是较大调整模式的第一波。如果这种情况发生，AAVE 可能会再次下跌至 100 美元或略低于 100 美元，然后再恢复上升轨迹。