Bitcoin Breaks Above $96,000, Signalling a Potential Market Structure Shift

Bitcoin (BTC) price is showing signs of heating up as it attempts to break out of a key resistance zone, suggesting that a decisive move may be unfolding.

Bitcoin May Be Entering Early Stages Of New Rally, Says Top Crypto Analyst

After weeks of consolidation and selling pressure, Bitcoin has finally broken above the $96,000 mark. This breakout could give bulls the upper hand and set the stage for a continuation of the rally, setting sights on the psychological $100,000 milestone.

As global macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical tensions continue to cast uncertainty over financial markets, Bitcoin’s strength hints at a growing appetite for risk among investors.

If bulls can sustain this breakout and push toward $100K, it would confirm a broader market shift and potentially lead to a strong Q2 rally across the crypto sector.

Top crypto analyst Axel Adler shared a key on-chain metric that suggests Bitcoin is entering the early stages of a new rally. According to Adler, the on-chain momentum ratio now sits around 0.8 (or 80%). Historically, this zone has preceded strong upward trends in previous cycles.

According to his analysis, if this ratio manages to break above 1.0 and manages to stay there, it would indicate a strong bullish impulse. In this optimistic scenario, key metrics like NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) and MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) would signal an expansion phase, potentially pushing Bitcoin to revisit its cycle pattern seen in 2017 and 2021. A rally toward $150K to $175K would not be out of the question in such a case.

However, if the ratio remains between 0.8 and 1.0, the market may enter a consolidation phase. In this case, Bitcoin would likely trade between $90K and $110K, with participants holding positions but not adding significant exposure. This range-bound behavior would suggest that caution remains, despite a positive longer-term outlook.

A more cautious outlook emerges if the ratio drops toward 0.75 or lower. This move would likely trigger profit-taking from short-term holders, putting pressure on the market and possibly driving Bitcoin down to the $70K–$85K range. Given that a correction has already taken place, Adler believes the first two scenarios are currently more probable. Still, macroeconomic risks—such as recession fears or geopolitical shocks—could tip the scale.

Overall, Bitcoin appears to be warming up for a decisive move, and the next few weeks may confirm whether this is the beginning of a breakout or a continuation of broader consolidation.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bulls Challenge Key Resistance At $96K

Bitcoin is trading at $96,130, continuing its short-term uptrend after a sharp rally from the $81K level in mid-April. The daily chart shows strong momentum, with BTC now consolidating just below the $96K resistance zone—a level that previously acted as support in February and March before the breakdown.

A successful breakout above this zone would open the door for a test of the psychological $100K level, followed by the next major resistance at $103,600.

Notably, both the 200-day SMA ($89,843) and 200-day EMA ($85,926) have been cleanly reclaimed during this recent move, signaling a clear shift in trend structure. Volume has remained steady during the rally, though a noticeable increase in buying pressure would help confirm continuation.

The current structure resembles a bullish continuation pattern, but BTC must break and close above the $96K mark with conviction to confirm upside momentum. Failure to do so may result in a pullback to retest support zones around $92K and $89K.

Overall, the trend remains bullish in the short term, but caution is warranted as the $96K–$100K range represents a critical supply zone where many sellers may step in. A decisive move in the coming days could shape Bitcoin’s direction for May.