Ethereum (ETH) price fails to react to Pectra upgrade despite successful deployment

Despite successfully implementing a key network upgrade on May 7, Ethereum’s price and derivatives metrics showed little response, surprising traders and leading analysts to question whether ETH still has a real chance of climbing 22% to retake the $2,200 level.

After months of hovering above the 5% neutral threshold, the ETH futures premium has remained at 3%, displaying a lack of appetite from leveraged bulls. More importantly, this indicator remained unchanged even after the Pectra upgrade, suggesting that traders did not adjust their positions despite the successful deployment of the upgrade.

This lackluster response can be partly attributed to investors’ focus on macroeconomic issues, such as rising recession risks amid uncertainty in global trade disputes. However, traders’ lack of interest in Ether predates the worsening of risk aversion conditions. In the first three months of 2025, ETH underperformed the broader cryptocurrency market capitalization by 28%.

The minimal price impact following the Pectra upgrade also reflects broader dissatisfaction, as competing blockchains have gained traction.

While high Ethereum base layer fees may have limited network activity in the past, these costs have dropped below $1 since mid-February. Moreover, Ethereum’s leading layer-2 solution, Base, currently has 10.3 million monthly active users—significantly fewer than Solana’s 82.2 million and BNB Chain’s 25.9 million, according to Token Terminal data.

Solana has dominated the decentralized exchange sector, especially in token launches, by offering an integrated user experience. Similarly, Hyperliquid has exceeded expectations in perpetual futures trading, showcasing that traders are primarily focused on this aspect rather than decentralization and security, which are key strengths of the Ethereum network. In the stablecoin market, Tron has made significant strides.

Although Ethereum's leadership in total value locked (TVL) remains undisputed at $53.7 billion, this has provided minimal benefit to ETH holders. According to DefiLlama, the network fees amounted to $19 million over the past 30 days. In comparison, Tron generated $51.8 million in fees during the same period, while Solana generated $39.4 million.

According to Noam Hurwitz, head of engineering at Alchemy, after the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum blob fees have dropped to their lowest possible level. For Hurwitz, Ether's success hinges on base layer scalability, further improvements in the rollup mechanism, and ultimately, a more seamless user experience.

Bridging assets and data across Ethereum's layer-2 ecosystem has long been a challenge, whereas users on Solana and BNB Chain can easily switch between multiple decentralized applications (DApps). The Pectra upgrade, while a step in the right direction, does not solve this issue, which may explain why ETH has been unable to reclaim the $2,200 level reached in early March.

To see a 22% rally in Ether’s price from its current level of $1,810, investors will likely need to see evidence that the network's progress, be it through rising deposits or expanding layer-2 activity, is translating into tangible benefits. Ultimately, to encourage broader DApp adoption, which in turn would drive up demand for ETH within the ecosystem, there needs to be an improvement in staking yields or the introduction of stronger incentives.