6 Ways the Halving Will Impact Bitcoin Mining

The next Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 20, is poised to significantly impact the mining landscape. Below Jaran Mellerud, of Hashlabs Mining, forecasts for what lies ahead.
Bitcoin’s hashrate will not drop by that much.
Contrary to popular belief, this halving will likely not cause a major decrease in the network's hashrate. After Bitcoin’s first three halvings, the hashrate plummeted by 25%, 11%, and 25%, and it appears many analysts and miners are expecting (or hoping for?) a similar hashrate reduction this time.
I concur with Pennyether's prediction that the forthcoming Bitcoin halving is expected to result in a modest decrease in the hashrate, ranging from 5 to 10%. This prediction is also not far from that of Hashrate Index, which sits at 3-7%.
This cautious forecast stems from the present high profitability of Bitcoin mining, driven by its high price, and the observation that approximately 70% of Bitcoin's hashrate was introduced since January 2022, operating under mining economics that at times were less favorable than those now anticipated post-halving.
Additionally, the hashrate is expected to quickly bounce back from this slight dip. In the past three halvings, the network recovered its pre-halving hashrate levels within an average of 57 days. This trend highlights an important perspective: halvings should not be viewed as events that lower the hashrate, but rather as brief pauses in the hashrate's relentless upward trajectory.
The hashrate's robustness is further enhanced by the continuous efforts of miners to update their equipment with the newest and most efficient models. This strategy is anticipated not just to offset any short-term reductions in hashrate, but is also likely to lead to a significant uptick in hashrate in the forthcoming months.
In essence, the upcoming Bitcoin halving is likely to be a brief hiccup in the network's hashrate trajectory, rather than a significant setback.
High-cost miners will be forced to upgrade fleets.
Data from CoinMetrics highlights that most of the industry currently operates with relatively inefficient machines like the Antminer S19J Pro. These miners require an operating cost of $0.05/kWh or lower to maintain healthy gross profit margins post-halving.
However, with the average hosting rate in the United States sitting just below $0.08/kWh, as indicated by Hashrate Index, many U.S.-based miners could face cash flow challenges after the halving and thus be forced to undertake massive fleet upgrades.
Bitmain's launch of its new machines, including the S21, T21, and S21 Pro — each boasting efficiencies below 20 J/TH — arrives just in time for the halving. This development is prompting many U.S.-based hosting providers to push their customers to switch from S19J Pro to S21 models. Given the high hosting fees in the U.S., this push can be seen as a necessity rather than a choice.
Referring to the chart above, it's evident that the S19J Pro models are unlikely to generate positive cash flow when hosted at $0.08 per kWh, considering their direct bitcoin production cost stands at $75,000. Thus, miners facing higher operational expenses must transition to more efficient hardware, such as the Antminer S21 or similar models, to maintain profitability.
While upgrading to the latest machines allows operations to continue even in high-cost environments, it's hardly a viable long-term strategy. The necessity to constantly update...
https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2024/04/08/6-ways-the-halving-will-impact-bitcoin-mining/
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