Grayscale research report! Will Bitcoin hit a new high in 2026?

Grayscale’s latest report points out that Bitcoin’s correction since October 2025 is a normal adjustment in the bull market, and predicts that its price is expected to reach a record high in 2026. The core point of the report is to question the traditional "four-year cycle" theory and believe that the basis of this bull market has undergone structural changes: the rising pattern has become more moderate, and there has been no typical parabolic surge in the past; the main channel of capital inflow has shifted from retail trading to exchange-traded products (ETP) and digital asset treasury (DAT). Institutional funds have become the dominant force, marking a fundamental change in the structure and driving logic of market participants. At the same time, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and progress in U.S. encryption legislation may provide benefits. But the new structure also contains new risks. For example, DAT’s “premium flywheel” may reverse into a “death spiral.” The report recommends that investors need to update their cognitive framework, shift from tracking halving events to analyzing institutional capital flows, corporate financial strategies and macro policies, adhere to long-term rational allocations during the market transition period, and use strategies such as fixed investment to cope with complex fluctuations.