XRP's Latest Rally Attempt Has Stalled Just Beneath a Key Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) Level

XRP's latest rally attempt has stalled just beneath a key volume-weighted average price (VWAP) level that traces back to the asset's all-time high

The latest rally attempt by XRP has stalled just beneath a key volume-weighted average price (VWAP) level that traces back to the asset’s all-time high, according to an X market update published earlier today by independent trader Dom (@traderview2).

The 12-hour Binance chart shared by the analyst shows XRP/USDT changing hands at $2.4375 by 12:18 UTC-4, up 2.08 % on the session but still unable to reclaim what Dom labels the “ATH VWAP”—a long-term metric drawn from the April 2021 peak. A green band representing that average is currently drifting downward through ≈ $2.47, capping every intraday advance since mid-May.

There’s simply been an overload of market selling and passive buyers have really tried their best to hold it up so far.

We are also seeing some good, healthy buying interest in the lower price ranges (especially in the $2.20s–$2.30s). But ultimately, the sellers are winning this time.

— Dom (@traderview2) August 9, 2023

The seller’s footprint is also unmistakable as we move lower in the same chart. “There’s simply been an overload of market selling and passive buyers have really tried their best to hold it up so far,” Dom wrote, citing proprietary order-flow statistics that record a net outflow of 240 million XRP across spot venues in the past week. Roughly 180 million of those units were allegedly dumped on Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) and South Korean exchange Upbit, while Binance has actually been decently flat, the post adds.

The same chart plots two shorter-term anchored VWAPs that have become the coin’s last line of near-term support: a one-month rolling VWAP at $2.31, currently 5.22% below the session high (orange), and a three-month VWAP at $2.28, 6.40 % lower (cyan).

“It does appear that we are hanging on to the monthly and quarterly VWAP by a thread,” Dom warns. A decisive breach of those bands around $2.31–2.33 would leave the market “really just mid-range noise until … $2.20 is lost,” he adds, pointing to the December–February midpoint drawn on the left-hand volume profile.

While Bitcoin (BTC) has been “really just bouncing around” in a broad consolidation zone, the correlation has offered little relief to XRP bulls. Every minor rise in BTC has been met by fresh spot offers in XRP, underscoring what Dom calls the “very hard to see upward moves when we are seeing this type of market selling pressure.”

For now, the technical chessboard is clear: reclaim the ATH VWAP and the path opens toward the late-March swing high above $3.00; lose $2.20 and the door swings the other way, toward the confluence of high-volume nodes stacked below $2.00. Until one of those barriers gives, the analyst concludes, XRP “has lost its pep in its step” and remains caught in a tug-of-war between relentless spot sellers and a thinning layer of passive bids.

At press time, XRP traded at $2.36.