XRP, Dogecoin, Cardano ETFs: Are We There Yet?

Bloomberg analysts are increasingly confident about the SEC approving XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano ETFs. What's driving this optimism and what could it mean for the market?

Hold onto your hats, crypto enthusiasts! The buzz around XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano ETFs is getting louder. Are we finally on the verge of seeing these altcoins join Bitcoin and Ethereum in the ETF arena?

Optimism Surges for Altcoin ETF Approvals

Top Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have significantly raised their expectations for spot crypto ETF approvals, citing increased engagement with the SEC as a key factor. They now estimate a whopping 90% chance for most spot crypto ETF filings to get the green light, including those for XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano. This optimism stems from the SEC's recent actions, including acknowledging 19b-4 forms and seemingly viewing these altcoins as commodities.

Seyffart tweeted, "Eric Balchunas & I are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher. Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion."

What's Driving the Change?

Several factors are contributing to this shift in sentiment. The successful launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier in 2024 paved the way, demonstrating investor appetite for regulated crypto investment products. Furthermore, the appointment of Paul Atkins as the new SEC chair in April, who has promised a more lenient approach to digital assets, has further fueled optimism.

The existence of Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated futures markets for many of these assets also strengthens the case for ETF approval.

XRP Leads the Charge (Maybe)

While all three are in the spotlight, XRP seems to be generating particular buzz. Prediction markets like Polymarket show a surge in confidence for an XRP ETF approval by the end of the year, with odds reaching 90%. However, the SEC delayed its decision on the Grayscale Cardano Spot ETF application. While there's still a delay in approving the spot XRP ETF in the US, the 3iQ XRP ETF was launched on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday.

The Impact of ETF Approval

The approval of XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano ETFs could have a transformative impact on the crypto market. It would allow mainstream investors to gain exposure to these altcoins through traditional stock exchanges, without the need to directly manage crypto wallets. This could unlock significant institutional capital and drive further adoption of these digital assets.

A Word of Caution

While the outlook is promising, it's important to remember that regulatory approvals are never guaranteed. The SEC could still delay or reject these applications. For example, the SEC said it would take an extra 35 days to decide whether to accept or reject Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP filing.

So, When Will It Happen?

Analysts suggest that approvals could arrive within weeks or closer to final deadlines later this year, with most applications facing SEC decisions in October and November. The next few months could be very important for getting ready for what could be the biggest crypto event of the year.

Final Thoughts

The potential approval of XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano ETFs is an exciting development for the crypto industry. While uncertainties remain, the increasing optimism from analysts and the SEC's evolving stance suggest that we may be closer than ever to seeing these altcoins enter the mainstream investment world. Buckle up, folks – it's gonna be a wild ride!