XDC is trading above a key support zone following a prolonged correction. The price structure suggests a potential wave-based reversal, with confluence from Fibonacci levels.
The higher time frame for XDC (4-hour chart) illustrates a prolonged correction following a five-wave advance that peaked around $0.158. After forming a descending wedge pattern between January and March 2025, XDC broke out with a swift bullish move, aligning with typical post-corrective behavior. However, the breakout failed to sustain momentum past the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($0.076), resulting in sideways price action beneath structural resistance.
XDC is now hovering slightly below the 0.618 Fib retracement at $0.0740, which also coincides with a key horizontal structural zone formed by previous support. This zone, ranging from $0.070 to $0.078, also acted as a cluster for several consolidation attempts between February and April, further attesting to its significance.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in neutral territory, having recovered slightly from oversold conditions. This potential indicates further upside if a catalyst emerges.
The prevailing structure shows a completed W-X-Y correction, followed by an impulse up and the current pullback, which could be forming a higher low. The macro low remains valid at $0.0545 (0.786 Fib), but a sustained closure below $0.070 would invalidate the bullish recovery thesis and reopen the possibility of deeper retracement.
Zooming into the 1-hour chart, the Elliott Wave count suggests that XDC completed a five-wave impulse up, reaching a peak just above $0.083 (wave v), and has since begun a standard A-B-C corrective pattern. Wave a concluded around $0.0705, and a mild wave b bounce is currently unfolding.
If the present count is correct, wave C could drive the price lower, potentially reaching the $0.065–$0.060 support cluster, before the next upward leg commences. The RSI is also rebounding from oversold levels, showing temporary relief. However, this bounce lacks volume confirmation, which may indicate that it’s part of a corrective structure rather than a trend reversal.
If wave C completes within the key demand zone (highlighted in blue), it would present a textbook long re-entry opportunity, aligned with Fib confluence and previous structural support.
If the bulls manage to defend the 0.618 zone and push higher, the next wave extension could target the 0.5 Fib retracement at $0.0921, followed by the 0.382 at $0.1076. Conversely, if they fail to reclaim the $0.078–$0.080 area, it may lead to further price decline towards the 0.786 Fib at $0.0545.
