10x Research: Bitcoin Halving Won't Spark Bull Run

According to Markus Thielen, co-founder of 10x Research, the upcoming Bitcoin halving is unlikely to trigger a bullish surge in the cryptocurrency market. Thielen contends that previous post-halving rallies were primarily driven by favorable macro conditions rather than the halving event itself. He predicts that bearish signals in the crypto market, coupled with macroeconomic uncertainty, may lead to a decline in Bitcoin's price to around $50,000 in the short term.

Bitcoin Halving: Not the Catalyst for Bullish Run, Says 10x Research Analyst

Markus Thielen, co-founder of 10x Research, has cast doubt on the widely held belief that the upcoming Bitcoin halving will ignite a bullish rally. Thielen contends that previous post-halving surges were primarily driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions rather than the halving itself.

Uncertain Market Conditions Dampen Outlook

Amidst macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin faces the prospect of a decline to as low as $50,000 in the coming weeks, according to Thielen. The crypto market has been grappling with bearish signals that are likely to exert downward pressure on prices in the short term.

Factors Impeding Price Increase

Thielen identifies several key factors that are currently inhibiting a price increase. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which initially generated excitement upon their launch in January, have witnessed minimal inflows, indicating a waning interest among TradFi investors.

Macroeconomic Environment Drives Market

Thielen emphasizes that the macroeconomic environment is the primary driver of cryptocurrency prices. In recent months, inflation data has dashed hopes for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a downturn in risk assets like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Halving Not a Bullish Catalyst

Contrary to popular belief, Thielen argues that previous post-halving Bitcoin rallies were not directly attributable to the halving. Instead, he cites positive macroeconomic conditions as the underlying catalyst. For example, the 2020 halving coincided with significant monetary and fiscal stimulus measures due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Consolidation and Price Volatility

Thielen predicts a period of consolidation in Bitcoin's price movement, potentially lasting several weeks and driving it down to around $50,000. However, he anticipates a recovery toward the end of the year.

Disclaimer

The views expressed by Markus Thielen are his own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CoinDesk. CoinDesk maintains a strict set of editorial policies, ensuring that its content is free from promotional bias. CoinDesk was acquired by Digital Currency Group, which is the parent company of Grayscale Investments, a leading crypto asset manager.

About the Author

Helene Braun is a New York-based reporter covering Wall Street, the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and crypto exchanges. She is also the co-host of CoinDesk's Markets Daily podcast. Braun has appeared on prominent outlets such as CBS News, YahooFinance, and Nasdaq TradeTalks. She holds Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

About CoinDesk

CoinDesk is a leading blockchain and cryptocurrency news and information site. Its award-winning journalism covers a wide range of topics, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi, NFTs, and the broader crypto ecosystem. CoinDesk also hosts Consensus, the world's largest blockchain and cryptocurrency conference.

Additional Information

For more information on the upcoming Bitcoin halving and its potential impact on the market, please refer to the following resources:

• [Bitcoin Halving Countdown](https://coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)
• [Halving History: What to Expect](https://www.coindesk.com/learn/halving/)
• [Impact of Halving on Bitcoin Price](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/05/bitcoin-halving.asp)