10x 研究：比特币减半不会引发牛市

10x Research 联合创始人 Markus Thielen 表示，即将到来的比特币减半不太可能引发加密货币市场的牛市飙升。蒂伦认为，之前的减半后反弹主要是由有利的宏观条件推动的，而不是减半事件本身。他预测，加密市场的看跌信号，加上宏观经济的不确定性，可能会导致比特币价格在短期内跌至 5 万美元左右。

Bitcoin Halving: Not the Catalyst for Bullish Run, Says 10x Research Analyst

10x 研究分析师表示，比特币减半并不是牛市的催化剂

Markus Thielen, co-founder of 10x Research, has cast doubt on the widely held belief that the upcoming Bitcoin halving will ignite a bullish rally. Thielen contends that previous post-halving surges were primarily driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions rather than the halving itself.

10x Research 联合创始人马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen) 对即将到来的比特币减半将引发看涨反弹的广泛看法表示怀疑。蒂伦认为，此前减半后的飙升主要是由有利的宏观经济条件驱动的，而不是减半本身。

Uncertain Market Conditions Dampen Outlook

不确定的市场状况削弱了前景

Amidst macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin faces the prospect of a decline to as low as $50,000 in the coming weeks, according to Thielen. The crypto market has been grappling with bearish signals that are likely to exert downward pressure on prices in the short term.

Thielen 表示，在宏观经济不确定的情况下，比特币面临着未来几周跌至 50,000 美元的前景。加密货币市场一直在努力应对可能在短期内对价格造成下行压力的看跌信号。

Factors Impeding Price Increase

阻碍价格上涨的因素

Thielen identifies several key factors that are currently inhibiting a price increase. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which initially generated excitement upon their launch in January, have witnessed minimal inflows, indicating a waning interest among TradFi investors.

蒂伦指出了目前抑制价格上涨的几个关键因素。现货比特币 ETF 在 1 月份推出时最初引起了人们的兴奋，但目前资金流入很少，这表明 TradFi 投资者的兴趣正在减弱。

Macroeconomic Environment Drives Market

宏观经济环境驱动市场

Thielen emphasizes that the macroeconomic environment is the primary driver of cryptocurrency prices. In recent months, inflation data has dashed hopes for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a downturn in risk assets like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Thielen 强调，宏观经济环境是加密货币价格的主要驱动因素。近几个月来，通胀数据让美联储降息的希望破灭，导致科技股和加密货币等风险资产下跌。

Halving Not a Bullish Catalyst

减半不是看涨催化剂

Contrary to popular belief, Thielen argues that previous post-halving Bitcoin rallies were not directly attributable to the halving. Instead, he cites positive macroeconomic conditions as the underlying catalyst. For example, the 2020 halving coincided with significant monetary and fiscal stimulus measures due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

与普遍看法相反，蒂伦认为，之前比特币减半后的反弹并不是直接归因于减半。相反，他将积极的宏观经济状况视为潜在的催化剂。例如，2020 年减半恰逢因 COVID-19 大流行而采取的重大货币和财政刺激措施。

Consolidation and Price Volatility

整合和价格波动

Thielen predicts a period of consolidation in Bitcoin's price movement, potentially lasting several weeks and driving it down to around $50,000. However, he anticipates a recovery toward the end of the year.

Thielen 预测比特币价格走势将经历一段整合期，可能会持续数周，并将其推低至 50,000 美元左右。不过，他预计今年年底会出现复苏。

Disclaimer

免责声明

The views expressed by Markus Thielen are his own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CoinDesk. CoinDesk maintains a strict set of editorial policies, ensuring that its content is free from promotional bias. CoinDesk was acquired by Digital Currency Group, which is the parent company of Grayscale Investments, a leading crypto asset manager.

Markus Thielen 表达的观点仅代表他自己，并不一定反映 CoinDesk 的观点。 CoinDesk 维持一套严格的编辑政策，确保其内容不存在促销偏见。 CoinDesk 被数字货币集团收购，该集团是领先的加密资产管理公司 Grayscale Investments 的母公司。

About the Author

关于作者

Helene Braun is a New York-based reporter covering Wall Street, the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and crypto exchanges. She is also the co-host of CoinDesk's Markets Daily podcast. Braun has appeared on prominent outlets such as CBS News, YahooFinance, and Nasdaq TradeTalks. She holds Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

Helene Braun 是一位驻纽约记者，报道华尔街、现货比特币 ETF 的兴起和加密货币交易所。她还是 CoinDesk 市场日报播客的联合主持人。布劳恩曾出现在哥伦比亚广播公司新闻、雅虎财经和纳斯达克贸易谈话等知名媒体上。她持有比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）。

About CoinDesk

关于CoinDesk

CoinDesk is a leading blockchain and cryptocurrency news and information site. Its award-winning journalism covers a wide range of topics, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi, NFTs, and the broader crypto ecosystem. CoinDesk also hosts Consensus, the world's largest blockchain and cryptocurrency conference.

CoinDesk 是领先的区块链和加密货币新闻和信息网站。其屡获殊荣的新闻报道涵盖了广泛的主题，包括比特币、以太坊、DeFi、NFT 以及更广泛的加密生态系统。 CoinDesk 还主办了全球最大的区块链和加密货币会议 Consensus。

Additional Information

附加信息

For more information on the upcoming Bitcoin halving and its potential impact on the market, please refer to the following resources:

有关即将到来的比特币减半及其对市场潜在影响的更多信息，请参考以下资源：

• [Bitcoin Halving Countdown](https://coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)
• [Halving History: What to Expect](https://www.coindesk.com/learn/halving/)
• [Impact of Halving on Bitcoin Price](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/05/bitcoin-halving.asp)

[比特币减半倒计时](https://coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)[减半历史：展望](https://www.coindesk.com/learn/halving/)[减半对比特币价格的影响] （https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/05/bitcoin-halving.asp）