TRUMP Memecoin Defies Expectations, Rises 8% After 40M Token Unlock

On April 18, the TRUMP memecoin faced a significant test as 40 million new tokens—worth nearly $300 million—entered circulation.

On April 18, the TRUMP memecoin faced a crucial test as 40 million new tokens—valued at nearly $300 million—entered circulation. This release comprised 20% of the coin’s current circulating supply and 4% of its total future cap of 1 billion tokens.

Typically, such large unlocks would trigger a price drop due to sudden supply expansion. However, TRUMP defied expectations, notching up an 8% intraday price increase and pushing back above the $8 psychological threshold.

This strong reaction suggests traders may have anticipated the unlock and priced it in early. With 24-hour trading volume spiking 68%, bullish sentiment appeared to temporarily overpower fears of dilution.

While the short-term price action seems promising, the bigger picture is more nuanced. TRUMP has fallen 88% from its all-time high of $74.59, highlighting a heavily weakened structure. The rally sparked by the unlock may simply be a reflex move within a longer downtrend, rather than the start of a lasting recovery.

Furthermore, the memecoin’s network activity has dwindled significantly. Only 1,476 new wallet addresses were recorded recently, a stark contrast to the nearly 700,000 wallets created during its bullish phase. Without fresh demand or growing adoption, the recent pump could struggle to sustain momentum.

On-chain data offers an interesting contrast. Despite the token’s sharp decline in price, Short-Term Holders (STHs) haven’operability_statusy shown signs of panic. TRUMP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for these holders remains above capitulation levels. In essence, many investors appear content to hold, even through deep drawdowns.

This kind of behavior reflects lingering optimism among retail participants and may explain why the market didn’t immediately crash after the unlock. Strong support remains around the $7 level, as buyers continue to absorb selling pressure.

TRUMP’s tokenomics are structured with a hard supply limit of 1 billion tokens to be released over a three-year period. With only 20% currently in circulation, more unlock events are expected. These could lead to increased volatility, especially if large holders begin dumping tokens.

Still, the token’s post-launch fundamentals have held up better than some expected. While the initial hype has faded, the absence of full capitulation among holders suggests that TRUMP’s long-term outlook isn’t entirely bleak—at least not yet.