Sui (SUI) Price Analysis: From Bullish Momentum to Critical Support Loss

This move comes amid continued fallout from the $223 million Cetus Protocol hack, one of the largest decentralized finance (DeFi) breaches this year

The SUI coin had enjoyed a strong rally in recent weeks, briefly touching highs around $4.29 (roughly Rs 37,100) on May 12, backed by increased interest in the Sui DeFi ecosystem, real-world asset tokenization, and institutional involvement. However, the exploit on the Cetus DEX, a core component of the Sui network, marked a significant turning point.

The SLI coin is currently trading at approximately $3.47, indicating a decline of nearly 1.90% in the last 24 hours.

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According to market data, the SUI price plunged nearly 14% following the exploit, eventually dropping nearly 20% from its monthly peak. The attack not only wiped out liquidity from pools such as SUI/USDC, which lost about $11 million, but also caused the Total Value Locked (TVL) on the network to shrink from $2.13 billion to $1.54 billion in a matter of days.

While SUI briefly bounced back above $3.50 support, it has since slipped again, challenging the bullish narrative that had dominated Sui crypto news updates earlier in May.

The Sui chart pattern now presents a complex picture. A bearish engulfing candle followed by a long-tailed Doji on the daily chart hinted at indecision around the SUI support level at $3.50. However, the recent dip below that level signals a breakdown in short-term momentum.

A potential falling wedge pattern in Sui was invalidated after a false breakout above the $4.0040 resistance, as the Sui price dropped to the $3.5868 invalidation level. Credit: EkyFabyanto on TradingView

Momentum indicators offer mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near the neutral 50 mark, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has begun forming bearish histograms. Despite this, the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs continue to flash long-term buy signals, suggesting that the broader SUI bullish scenario may still be intact if recovery efforts gain traction.

Should the price continue its decline, analysts highlight the 200-day EMA at $3.01 as the next critical SUI support level. On the upside, the $4.07 mark—previously a key support—now stands as the immediate SUI resistance level that bulls must conquer to reestablish positive momentum.

In the derivatives arena, activity has intensified. Coinglass data shows that Sui trading volume in derivatives rose by 40% to $3.57 billion, suggesting a surge in speculative interest, possibly driven by volatility rather than directional conviction.

Open interest, however, fell by nearly 3% to $1.77 billion, indicating that some traders may be closing positions or taking profits after recent market swings. Still, the OI-weighted funding rate rose to 0.0124%, a sign of bullish intent, and short liquidations outpaced longs, showing that some market participants may be positioning for a rebound.

Cetus Protocol, a decentralized exchange (DEX) built on the Sui network, suffered a massive exploit, leading to the theft of $223 million in crypto assets. The exploit, which occurred on May 7, 2024, utilized a critical math vulnerability in the protocol’s smart contract.

The network’s emergency response has sparked criticism. Sui validators managed to freeze $162 million of the stolen funds by blacklisting the attacker’s wallet. However, critics argue that such centralized control contradicts the ethos of decentralization in Layer 1 blockchain systems.

Some observers have expressed concerns about the extent of influence held by a small group of validators and insiders, a topic that could factor into broader discussions of Sui investor sentiment and the long-term health of the ecosystem.