STH MVRV Forecasts Key Sell Zones As Bitcoin Holds Above $100K

Bitcoin is trading above the $100,000 mark after several days of consolidation just under $105,000. The market remains uncertain as bulls attempt to push higher

In the dynamic realm of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating in a narrow range just below the $105,000 mark after a period of swift gains. As the market eagerly anticipates the next major move, bulls are focused on pushing higher, aiming for a continuation of the recent rally. Conversely, bears are keeping a close eye on any signs of weakness that could indicate a potential retracement.

The cryptocurrency market has seen a remarkable recovery this year, with Bitcoin leading the charge. After reaching a low of $15,448 in late December 2022, BTC experienced a swift rebound, recovering nearly 40% of its losses by mid-April. This rally was largely driven by the U.S. banking crisis, which sparked a broad shift in investor sentiment toward Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.

From the April 9th low of around $65,000, Bitcoin surged over 40% to reach highs above $91,000. However, the market stalled at this level as sellers emerged, pushing the price back down. Despite this setback, bulls remained optimistic, setting their sights on a potential breakout above $100,000 to propel the coin into a new phase of price discovery.

According to new data from CryptoQuant, the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) ratio currently stands at 1.09. This indicates that short-term holders are in moderate profit, an observation that has implications for the sustainability of the present rally.

Typically, when the STH MVRV approaches 1.25, it marks the first significant wave of profit-taking. At the current growth rate, this MVRV milestone could be reached by early June, correlating to a Bitcoin price of around $118,000. A stronger wave tends to occur around 1.35, which in the present growth trajectory would be attained by late June and translates to roughly $128,000.

At the current average growth rate, these MVRV milestones could be reached by early and late June, respectively. For now, all eyes are on Bitcoin’s next move as sentiment swings between breakout optimism and cautious profit management.

STH MVRV Forecasts Key Sell Zones As Bitcoin Holds Above $100K

Bitcoin is now facing a crucial technical test, with the $100,000 level acting as a key support zone that could determine the market’s next major move. Bulls must defend this area to confirm a strong bullish structure and maintain the momentum that has carried BTC over 40% higher since the April 9th low.

After rallying more than 12% last week alone, Bitcoin has now spent over five weeks in a sustained uptrend, but the battle isn’t over yet.

If Bitcoin can hold above $100K and clear supply pressure near $105K, many analysts believe a breakout into price discovery could follow. Momentum is building, but the next steps will be decisive. According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, on-chain metrics provide additional clues.

The current STH MVRV (Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value) ratio sits at 1.09, signaling modest profitability for short-term holders — a necessary condition for sustainable uptrends. However, significant selling pressure is often triggered when the MVRV reaches 1.25 (target ≈ $118K) and intensifies around 1.35 (≈ $128K).

If the current growth rate holds, these levels could be reached by early and late June, respectively. Adler emphasizes that these projections are linear, meaning real momentum could either accelerate or slow based on macro and market sentiment.

For now, Bitcoin remains in a bullish structure, but eyes are on how it navigates this key zone. A clean push above $105K could spark a wave of new demand, while any weakness below $100K may shift sentiment quickly.

Technical View: Price Testing Crucial Demand

Bitcoin is currently trading at $101,765 after facing strong rejection just below the $105,000 resistance zone. The chart shows that BTC has entered a consolidation range after a sharp rally from April lows, with price action repeatedly testing the $103,600–$105,000 area without a confirmed breakout. This zone now acts as critical resistance that bulls must clear to resume the uptrend and push toward price discovery above the previous all-time high.

On the downside, the $100,000 mark provides strong psychological and technical support. A breakdown below this level could trigger further weakness toward the $95,000 region, which also aligns with the previous consolidation structure from early May. However, volume remains relatively