Solana (SOL) price completes 'death cross' pattern, setting the stage for a potential drop below $100

This could potentially accelerate the SOL price sell-off in the near term for a drop below $100 for the first time since February 2024.

Solana (SOL) price completed a “death cross” on the one-day chart on March 12, as the altcoin consolidated near its long-term support level at $125.

This could potentially accelerate the SOL price sell-off in the near term for a drop below $100 for the first time since February 2024.

Solana's 1-day chart. Source :TradingViewA death cross occurs when a bearish crossover occurs between the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), with the long-term indicator above the short-term indicator.

Last month, the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) triggered a death cross on Solana’s one-day chart, after which prices dropped 17%, from $137 to $122.

While the SMA and EMA death crosses carry similar implications, the EMA triggers the death cross faster since it responds more quickly to price changes. A double death cross from the SMA and EMA will likely increase the possibility of a correction.

Historically, the odds are neutral for Solana. Since its inception, SOL’s price has witnessed a death cross three times (including 2025) when prices have been on a 90-day or higher downtrend.

The first death cross in 2022 triggered a 90% collapse, but the FTX’s fiasco escalated its severity. The second death cross occurred in September 2024, but it reversed within a month, leading to the Trump rally.

But the current structure and sentiment mirror the 2022 death cross when we compare market conditions. On both occasions, a new all-time high preceded the downtrend, which led to the death cross.

As Cointelegraph reported, Solana’s revenue dropped 93% since January, dropping from $238 million to $32 million. This indicates a current lack of activity on Solana’s network after the end of the memecoin frenzy.

Can Solana traders defend $125?

Based on its technicals, Solana remains in a tricky spot when comparing previous death cross returns and collective market sentiment.

Solana must hold support between $125 and $110 for a bullish reversal. Since March 2024, SOL prices have rebounded six times after testing the support range, closing above $125 on each weekly retest.

A weekly close below $125 will signal market weakness, potentially increasing the likelihood of a drop below $100. The immediate price target after $110 is around $80 for Solana, which is a significant 30% correction. The downtrend target carries confluence with the weekly 0.5 Fibonacci retracement line.

Solana bullish divergences on the 1-day and 4-hour chart.

However, the bulls will pin their hopes on a bullish divergence between the price and relative strength index (RSI) on the 1-day and 4-hour charts.

If Solana manages to avoid another lower low, the divergences will remain valid, which can push prices higher above $125, enabling Solana to avoid a drop below $100 and possibly establish a bottom at $112.