Is Solana's price headed for a dip? We dissect the bearish outlook, onchain data, and what it all means for SOL.
Solana (SOL) has been making waves, but lately, it's been a mixed bag. A potential price drop is on the horizon, but onchain data tells a different story. Let's dive into the details.
Bearish Outlook on the Daily Chart
The daily chart for SOL paints a somewhat grim picture. A bearish engulfing pattern has formed, suggesting a possible drop to $120. There's also a head-and-shoulders pattern, a classic bearish reversal signal. If SOL breaks below the $140 neckline with a surge in volume, we could see further downward movement. The downside target from this pattern is around $126.
However, there's a demand zone between $95 and $120 that could be tested in the coming weeks. Keep an eye on the $157 resistance level; a daily close above that could invalidate the bearish pattern.
Bitcoin's Influence
Solana has shown a strong correlation with Bitcoin (BTC). If BTC retests support near the $100,000 level (which, let's be honest, feels like a typo—hopefully, they meant a lower support level!), increased sell-side pressure could drag SOL down further.
Onchain Data: A Ray of Hope?
Despite the bearish technicals, onchain data offers a more optimistic perspective. The Network Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT) has dropped to its lowest score since February 2025, indicating strong network usage relative to its market value. This is a good sign for long-term potential, even with SOL's price under $150.
Additionally, exchange net position change data reveals consistent SOL withdrawals from exchanges. This suggests growing investor confidence, as holding SOL off exchanges often signals accumulation for future gains. While there's been a recent uptick in deposits (aligning with the price dip), the overall trend shows significant net outflows.
Neo Pepe Coin's Rise: A Distraction?
While Solana navigates these choppy waters, new projects like Neo Pepe Coin ($NEOP) are grabbing attention. $NEOP's presale has surpassed $1.3 million, attracting investors seeking potentially higher returns. The rise of $NEOP highlights a shift towards new digital assets and Layer-1 protocols, creating an interesting dynamic in the crypto space.
Final Thoughts
Solana's price faces potential headwinds, but underlying network activity and investor behavior suggest resilience. The bearish outlook is tempered by positive onchain data, making it a situation worth watching closely. Of course, the crypto market is never boring. Will SOL defy the bearish predictions, or will it succumb to the downward pressure? Only time (and the charts) will tell.
