Odds of a US Recession in 2025 Dip Below 50% on Polymarket After Trade Deal With China

Bets in favor of a betting contract titled “US recession in 2025?” dropped from 52% to 49% over the last 24 hours on the Polygon POL/USD-based platform.

The odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 dipped below the 50% mark on decentralized prediction market Polymarket after the U.S. announced a trade deal with China on Sunday.

Bets in favor of a betting contract titled “US recession in 2025?” decreased slightly from 52% to 49% in the last 24 hours on the Polygon (CRYPTO: MATIC)-based platform.

As of press time, bookmakers have wagered more than $5 million on the bet. The outcome will resolve to “Yes” if the economy experiences another quarter of negative growth or if the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession before January 1, 2026.

Polymarket, which enables users to purchase “Yes” and “No” shares using USD Coin (USDC), is not accessible to U.S. residents due to regulatory constraints.

The slight decrease in probability follows the announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and China in Geneva on Sunday after high-level talks between the two countries.

President Donald Trump also mentioned that “great progress” was made during the discussions and that a “total reset” could be anticipated.

In response to the trade deal announcement, stock futures showed gains, with Dow Jones Futures increasing by over 400 points on Sunday evening.

Trump's wide-ranging tariff measures have led to volatility in financial markets, contributed to macroeconomic uncertainty and threatened product shortages.

The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, marking the first instance of quarterly shrinkage since the second quarter of 2022.