NFL Pick 'Em and Survivor Pool Advice: Week 1

The kickoff to the 2024 NFL season is finally here, and with it comes a wave of excitement. Season-long fantasy drafts are wrapping up, and now everyone is turning their attention toward spreads and survivor pools. Each week, we'll dive into the slate to pinpoint the best bets for pick'em leagues and map out a winning strategy for navigating the survivor landscape.

The 2024 NFL season is finally kicking off, bringing with it a wave of excitement and anticipation. Season-long fantasy drafts are nearing their conclusion, and now everyone's attention is shifting toward spreads and survivor pools. Each week, we'll be breaking down the slate to identify the best bets for pick'em leagues and outlining a winning strategy for navigating the survivor landscape.

The Chalk

Many people get bogged down in the details when discussing pick'em pools, often losing sight of the bigger picture. While picking the right games is certainly important, the game theory aspect of these pools is often overlooked. Pick'em pools are as much about probability and strategy as they are about Xs and Os. Each week, we'll be analyzing how the public's picks are trending and using that insight to inform our decisions.

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-4)

Public confidence in the Saints this week is driven more by Carolina's deficiencies than a resounding belief in New Orleans. The Saints are the stronger team overall, boasting a Top 10 defense that allowed just 19.2 points per game last season, compared to the Panthers, who were vulnerable in just about every way on defense. Derek Carr also provides a clear advantage at quarterback, capable of exploiting Carolina's lack of defensive pressure and playmaking ability. Betting trends also highlight the disparity, with over 90% of pick 'em bets favoring the Saints this week—a reflection of Carolina's struggles as they've failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs.

This is not the week to go contrarian; there will be better opportunities to go against the grain later in the season.

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)

Public confidence in the Buffalo Bills this week against the Arizona Cardinals is rooted in a clear mismatch between the two teams. The Bills enter as the stronger squad with a high-powered offense led by Josh Allen, who is projected to outperform Kyler Murray in both passing and rushing. The Cardinals, coming off a poor season, continue to struggle defensively and face significant challenges on the road. We're in a similar spot here. Later in the year, when you're trying to catch up in pick 'em, maybe you take a flier on Arizona here but right now you want to go with the flow.

Favorite Coin Flip

Each week, I'll highlight my favorite matchup where neither team is being picked over 60% in public pools (when possible). These matchups are where pick'em leagues are won in the long run. You may get lucky here and there with a big underdog that hits, but being right in these matchups that are perceived to be closer can be a huge advantage over the long run.

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

This game is the closest we have to a coin flip but there's still a large disparity. Over two-thirds of the picks are coming in on Dallas this week. This is a good leverage spot where you can gain a bit of a leg up on other entries in your pool if you go with Cleveland. The Browns were already solid on defense but with the additions of Za'Darius Smith, Dalvin Thomas, and Juan Thornhill they could be a true force this year. There are plenty of scenarios here where the Browns defensive line disrupts the Cowboys enough to win the game. If Deshaun Watson can hold up his end of the bargain, this could be a spot where you gain points on two-thirds of the league.

Surviving Survivor

Survivor pools are a unique strategic challenge where misplaced emphasis can lead to early exits. Many participants focus heavily on saving strong teams for later in the season, but this strategy can backfire if you overlook the week you're in. The fundamental principle of survivor pools is survival, after all.

The Top Three

Week 1 presents a relatively clear set of top survivor picks, and three teams stand out as the best options. At the top of the list, the Cincinnati Bengals are the chalkiest pick, opening as 9-point favorites against the New England Patriots. The Patriots enter the season with a myriad of issues, including uncertainty at quarterback and an overhauled roster that lacks proven playmakers. The Bengals’ potent offense, led by Joe Burrow, makes them a safe play.

The Buffalo Bills are the next most popular survivor pick, favored by 5.5 points against the Arizona Cardinals. The Bills offer a great blend of safety and strategic value; while they are not the most popular pick, they still have a strong win probability, making them a reliable choice. Arizona’s roster instability, combined with Buffalo's home-field advantage, makes this a straightforward pick that provides a good balance between safety and long-term planning.

The third option is the Seattle Seahawks, who are slightly less popular but offer significant value for those looking to save top teams like the Bengals for