NFL 选择他们和幸存者池建议：第 1 周

2024 年 NFL 赛季终于拉开帷幕，随之而来的是一波兴奋的浪潮。为期一季的奇幻选秀即将结束，现在每个人都将注意力转向分差和幸存者池。每周，我们都会深入研究，找出选秀联赛的最佳选择，并制定出应对幸存者形势的获胜策略。

The 2024 NFL season is finally kicking off, bringing with it a wave of excitement and anticipation. Season-long fantasy drafts are nearing their conclusion, and now everyone's attention is shifting toward spreads and survivor pools. Each week, we'll be breaking down the slate to identify the best bets for pick'em leagues and outlining a winning strategy for navigating the survivor landscape.

2024 年 NFL 赛季终于拉开帷幕，带来了一波兴奋和期待。长达一季的奇幻选秀即将结束，现在每个人的注意力都转向了分布和幸存者池。每周，我们都会对名单进行细分，以确定选秀联赛的最佳选择，并概述应对幸存者局面的获胜策略。

The Chalk

粉笔

Many people get bogged down in the details when discussing pick'em pools, often losing sight of the bigger picture. While picking the right games is certainly important, the game theory aspect of these pools is often overlooked. Pick'em pools are as much about probability and strategy as they are about Xs and Os. Each week, we'll be analyzing how the public's picks are trending and using that insight to inform our decisions.

许多人在讨论挑选池时陷入细节，往往忽视了大局。虽然选择正确的游戏固然重要，但这些池子的博弈论方面却经常被忽视。选号池既关乎 X 和 Os，也关乎概率和策略。每周，我们都会分析公众的选择趋势，并利用这些洞察来指导我们的决策。

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-4)

卡罗莱纳黑豹队 @ 新奥尔良圣徒队 (-4)

Public confidence in the Saints this week is driven more by Carolina's deficiencies than a resounding belief in New Orleans. The Saints are the stronger team overall, boasting a Top 10 defense that allowed just 19.2 points per game last season, compared to the Panthers, who were vulnerable in just about every way on defense. Derek Carr also provides a clear advantage at quarterback, capable of exploiting Carolina's lack of defensive pressure and playmaking ability. Betting trends also highlight the disparity, with over 90% of pick 'em bets favoring the Saints this week—a reflection of Carolina's struggles as they've failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs.

本周公众对圣徒队的信心更多地是由卡罗莱纳的缺陷驱动的，而不是对新奥尔良的坚定信念。圣徒队整体上是实力更强的球队，他们的防守排名前十，上赛季场均只失分19.2分，而黑豹队的防守在各个方面都很脆弱。德里克·卡尔在四分卫位置上也提供了明显的优势，能够利用卡罗来纳州缺乏防守压力和组织能力的优势。投注趋势也突显了这种差距，本周超过 90% 的精选投注有利于圣徒队，这反映了卡罗莱纳队的挣扎，因为他们在过去 9 场客场比赛中的 8 场都未能弥补客场劣势。

This is not the week to go contrarian; there will be better opportunities to go against the grain later in the season.

这周不适合逆势而行。在本赛季后期会有更好的机会逆向生长。

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)

亚利桑那红雀队对阵布法罗比尔队 (-6.5)

Public confidence in the Buffalo Bills this week against the Arizona Cardinals is rooted in a clear mismatch between the two teams. The Bills enter as the stronger squad with a high-powered offense led by Josh Allen, who is projected to outperform Kyler Murray in both passing and rushing. The Cardinals, coming off a poor season, continue to struggle defensively and face significant challenges on the road. We're in a similar spot here. Later in the year, when you're trying to catch up in pick 'em, maybe you take a flier on Arizona here but right now you want to go with the flow.

公众对本周布法罗比尔队对阵亚利桑那红雀队的信心源于两支球队之间明显的不匹配。比尔队以乔什·艾伦（Josh Allen）带领的强大进攻阵容进入，预计他在传球和冲球方面都将超越凯勒·穆雷（Kyler Murray）。红雀队经历了一个糟糕的赛季，他们的防守继续陷入困境，并在客场面临重大挑战。我们在这里处于相似的位置。今年晚些时候，当你试图赶上pick 'em时，也许你会在这里乘坐飞往亚利桑那州的飞机，但现在你想随波逐流。

Favorite Coin Flip

最喜欢的抛硬币

Each week, I'll highlight my favorite matchup where neither team is being picked over 60% in public pools (when possible). These matchups are where pick'em leagues are won in the long run. You may get lucky here and there with a big underdog that hits, but being right in these matchups that are perceived to be closer can be a huge advantage over the long run.

每周，我都会重点介绍我最喜欢的对决，其中两支球队在公共池中的选秀率都没有超过 60%（如果可能）。从长远来看，这些比赛是选秀联赛获胜的关键。你可能会时不时地碰上大弱者，但从长远来看，在这些被认为更接近的对决中占据正确位置可能是一个巨大的优势。

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

达拉斯牛仔队对克利夫兰布朗队 (-2.5)

This game is the closest we have to a coin flip but there's still a large disparity. Over two-thirds of the picks are coming in on Dallas this week. This is a good leverage spot where you can gain a bit of a leg up on other entries in your pool if you go with Cleveland. The Browns were already solid on defense but with the additions of Za'Darius Smith, Dalvin Thomas, and Juan Thornhill they could be a true force this year. There are plenty of scenarios here where the Browns defensive line disrupts the Cowboys enough to win the game. If Deshaun Watson can hold up his end of the bargain, this could be a spot where you gain points on two-thirds of the league.

这个游戏是我们最接近掷硬币的游戏，但仍然存在很大的差距。本周超过三分之二的选秀权将来自达拉斯。这是一个很好的杠杆点，如果你选择克利夫兰，你可以在你的池中的其他条目中获得一点优势。布朗队的防守已经很稳固，但随着扎达柳斯·史密斯、达尔文·托马斯和胡安·桑希尔的加盟，他们今年可能会成为一支真正的力量。在很多情况下，布朗队的防守线都会扰乱牛仔队，从而赢得比赛。如果德肖恩·沃森能够履行他的承诺，这可能是你在联盟三分之二的比赛中获得积分的地方。

Surviving Survivor

幸存的幸存者

Survivor pools are a unique strategic challenge where misplaced emphasis can lead to early exits. Many participants focus heavily on saving strong teams for later in the season, but this strategy can backfire if you overlook the week you're in. The fundamental principle of survivor pools is survival, after all.

幸存者池是一个独特的战略挑战，如果重点放错了，可能会导致提前退出。许多参与者都非常注重在赛季后期拯救强大的球队，但如果你忽视了你所处的一周，这种策略可能会适得其反。毕竟，幸存者池的基本原则是生存。

The Top Three

前三名

Week 1 presents a relatively clear set of top survivor picks, and three teams stand out as the best options. At the top of the list, the Cincinnati Bengals are the chalkiest pick, opening as 9-point favorites against the New England Patriots. The Patriots enter the season with a myriad of issues, including uncertainty at quarterback and an overhauled roster that lacks proven playmakers. The Bengals’ potent offense, led by Joe Burrow, makes them a safe play.

第一周提供了一组相对清晰的顶级幸存者选择，其中三支球队脱颖而出，成为最佳选择。排名榜首的辛辛那提猛虎队是最受青睐的球队，他们在对阵新英格兰爱国者队的比赛中以 9 分优势领先。爱国者队在进入新赛季时遇到了很多问题，包括四分卫的不确定性以及经过彻底改革的阵容中缺乏成熟的组织者。孟加拉虎队在乔·伯罗的带领下强大的进攻使他们的比赛变得安全。

The Buffalo Bills are the next most popular survivor pick, favored by 5.5 points against the Arizona Cardinals. The Bills offer a great blend of safety and strategic value; while they are not the most popular pick, they still have a strong win probability, making them a reliable choice. Arizona’s roster instability, combined with Buffalo's home-field advantage, makes this a straightforward pick that provides a good balance between safety and long-term planning.

布法罗比尔队是下一个最受欢迎的幸存者选择，在对阵亚利桑那红雀队时以 5.5 分的优势获胜。该法案将安全性和战略价值完美地结合在一起；虽然他们不是最受欢迎的选择，但他们仍然有很强的获胜概率，使他们成为可靠的选择。亚利桑那州阵容的不稳定，加上布法罗的主场优势，使得这个选择成为一个简单的选择，在安全性和长期规划之间提供了良好的平衡。

The third option is the Seattle Seahawks, who are slightly less popular but offer significant value for those looking to save top teams like the Bengals for

第三个选择是西雅图海鹰队，他们的受欢迎程度稍低，但对于那些希望拯救猛虎队这样的顶级球队的人来说具有重要价值。