"Moonshot" rally to new highs for Ethereum

Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggests a potential Ethereum rally to $3800–$4800 if ETH breaks above a rising wedge pattern.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt is suggesting a potential rally for Ethereum (ETH) to $3,800–$4,800 if the altcoin breaks through a key “congestion” pattern. In a recent X post, Brandt identified a rising wedge formation on the chart, a pattern that is often considered bearish. According to him, a breakout above this pattern could propel ETH toward the descending resistance line, targeting a range between $3,800 and $4,800. This analysis marks a notable shift in Brandt’s outlook for 2024, aligning with the renewed optimism for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt is suggesting a potential rally for Ethereum (ETH) to $3,800–$4,800 if the altcoin breaks through a key “congestion” pattern. In a recent X post, Brandt identified a rising wedge formation on the chart, a pattern that is often considered bearish. According to him, a breakout above this pattern could propel ETH toward the descending resistance line, targeting a range between $3,800 and $4,800. This analysis marks a notable shift in Brandt’s outlook for 2024, aligning with the renewed optimism for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.

“Rising wedge, usually a bear pattern, but a breakout (not necessarily a close above) of the wedge cound [sic] set up a mkts to the rising wedge x2 top at 3800-4800,” said Brandt.

Chart of Ethereum (ETH) with analysis by trader Peter Brandt. Source: X

Brandt’s comments come as Ethereum futures saw a 42% surge in open interest (OI), climbing from $21.3 billion to $30.4 billion between May 8 and May 11. Approaching its all-time high of $32 billion, this spike reflects heightened market activity and growing trader engagement. The rapid increase in OI signals strong interest in Ether futures, potentially paving the way for increased price volatility.

“The total futures OI has surged to $30.4 billion. A massive spike in 7 days. Last time we saw such a rise in OI, it went up by $31 billion in 14 days,” said Glassnode analysts in part.

Examining the higher-time frame (HTF) chart for Ethereum reveals a price rise on the weekly chart, where the altcoin has jumped toward the 50 and 100-week exponential moving averages (EMAs) over the past couple of weeks.

Examining the higher-time frame (HTF) chart for Ethereum reveals a price rise on the weekly chart, where the altcoin has jumped toward the 50 and 100-week exponential moving averages (EMAs) over the past couple of weeks.

Historically, such a recovery marks a price bottom but could also signal the beginning of a small correction period after the EMAs retest. Using Fibonacci retracement levels, ETH has retested the 0.5 to 0.618 range (orange box), which aligns with a price level of $2,500. This retest represents the first leg of the recovery, but a short-term pullback may occur before further bullish action unfolds.

Chart of Ethereum (ETH) highlighting key derivatives metrics. Source: Glassnode

As seen in the chart above, most of the buying pressure for ETH came from Binance, which is currently the most active exchange for ETH traders. As the chart shows, there was a spike in activity on May 7, when ETH’s native token opened its weekly candle at $1,807. Now, it is close to recording its highest seven-day returns of 38% since December 2020.

As seen in the chart above, most of the buying pressure for ETH came from Binance, which is currently the most active exchange for ETH traders. As the chart shows, there was a spike in activity on May 7, when ETH’s native token opened its weekly candle at $1,807. Now, it is close to recording its highest seven-day returns of 38% since December 2020.

Ether also surpassed its realized price for accumulating addresses ($1,900), which is the average cost basis for holders, signaling profits for users.

Ether also surpassed its realized price for accumulating addresses ($1,900), which is the average cost basis for holders, signaling profits for users.

The rising activity at Binance and outflows reflect strong trader confidence, liquidity, and sustained bullish momentum in the current market.

The rising activity at Binance and outflows reflect strong trader confidence, liquidity, and sustained bullish momentum in the current market.