When game promises turn into air.

The token has become the last stick in a game of musical chairs.

The promise of the game’s token has turned into hot air, and the token itself has become the last stick in a game of musical chairs as the music threatens to stop.

Those who woke up today to find their optimism waning were met with a chaotic scene. The circle has exploded.

The price of Hamster coin (HMSTR) plummeted by 19% in a single day, reaching a historic low of $0.001039. To understand this "Hamster Great Escape," we must unravel the dual strangulation of news and technical analysis. Let me explain it in plain language that even your grandma could comprehend.

News: A triple "sickle" has shattered market confidence.

1) Second season "dove into the earth's core," constantly delaying.

Last year, the development team painted a big picture to launch the second season game by the end of October, introducing new gameplay like hamsters opening studios. But what happened? Players didn't even see a shadow of the game, and the official only announced a vague teaser without mentioning a schedule. This kind of "wolf is coming" operation directly ignited a trust crisis. As a result, monthly active users plummeted from 100 million to 44 million, and players voted with their feet.

2) Airdrops turned into "air strikes," 60 billion tokens dumped.

The project party is madly spraying tokens to attract users—60 billion HMSTR tokens (60% of the total) entered the market through airdrops. Early players received tokens that were later valued at less than $10, humorously dubbed "dust rewards." Retail investors received tokens and immediately sold them, causing selling pressure to flood like a broken dam. Worse yet, the project has no token destruction mechanism, and inflation pressure continues.

3) Competition within the sector is intense, Telegram games have collectively stalled.

The entire Ton ecosystem game is in a slump: competitor Catizen (CATI) is down 71%, Notcoin (NOT) is down 78%, and the user retention rate of Hamster coin is plummeting—active users in Q1 2025 fell below 1 million, losing over 96% from the peak. Without player support, the "gold farming game" is just a house of cards.

Technical analysis: Downward trend has formed a death spiral.

K-line ghost stories: There is no lowest, only lower.

After reaching a peak of $0.0072 last September, Hamster coin has been in a continuous decline, accumulating a drop of over 67%. It is currently showing a "downward channel": highs continue to decline, and it was unable to hold even the $0.0022 resistance. On June 12, it dropped to a low of $0.001244, with liquidity nearly exhausted.

Volume reveals the truth: Big players have already exited.

On the day of the crash, the trading volume was only $20.89 million, less than 1/103 of the peak period. The shrinking volume indicates that the buyers have disappeared; a few sell orders can smash the floor price. Even more heartbreaking is that institutions had already cashed out at high levels in January—for example, DWF Labs withdrew $650,000 in a single day, leaving retail investors holding the bag.

Technical indicators have all "collapsed."

The weekly MACD dead cross is expanding, and RSI has dropped to 23 (severely oversold but no rebound). Fibonacci retracement shows that if the $0.0012 level is breached, the next target will be $0.000865 (another halving!).

Is Hamster coin really hopeless? Not necessarily! An entry point has emerged—the second airdrop is scheduled for summer 2025, and the team holds 15 billion tokens ready to stimulate the second quarter. For those who are interested in catching a reversal opportunity, you can set a limit order at $0.0009 to buy 500,000 tokens and try your luck.

But for those who are thinking of selling, my advice is to cut your losses and move on. There's no point in holding on to something that is sinking. It's better to take your lumps now and live to fight another day.

As for those who are thinking of buying, I would advise caution. The token is down sharply, and there are no signs of a bottom in sight. If you are considering buying, I would recommend waiting for some technical indicator to show a sign of oversold rebound, such as the RSI or Stochastic Oscillator.

In the meantime, you can follow me for more analysis and insights into the crypto market. I post regularly on my profile, so be sure to check it