当游戏承诺变成空气时。

代币已成为音乐椅游戏中的最后一根棍子。

The promise of the game’s token has turned into hot air, and the token itself has become the last stick in a game of musical chairs as the music threatens to stop.

游戏代币的承诺变成了热空气，随着音乐威胁要停止，代币本身已成为音乐椅游戏中的最后一支棍子。

Those who woke up today to find their optimism waning were met with a chaotic scene. The circle has exploded.

那些今天醒来发现自己乐观的人遇到了一个混乱的场景。圈子爆炸了。

The price of Hamster coin (HMSTR) plummeted by 19% in a single day, reaching a historic low of $0.001039. To understand this "Hamster Great Escape," we must unravel the dual strangulation of news and technical analysis. Let me explain it in plain language that even your grandma could comprehend.

仓鼠硬币（HMSTR）的价格在一天内下降了19％，历史低点达到0.001039美元。要理解这种“仓鼠大逃生”，我们必须弄清新闻和技术分析的双重扼杀。让我用简单的语言解释，即使您的奶奶也可以理解。

News: A triple "sickle" has shattered market confidence.

新闻：三重“镰刀”破坏了市场信心。

1) Second season "dove into the earth's core," constantly delaying.

1）第二季“鸽子进入地球的核心”，不断延迟。

Last year, the development team painted a big picture to launch the second season game by the end of October, introducing new gameplay like hamsters opening studios. But what happened? Players didn't even see a shadow of the game, and the official only announced a vague teaser without mentioning a schedule. This kind of "wolf is coming" operation directly ignited a trust crisis. As a result, monthly active users plummeted from 100 million to 44 million, and players voted with their feet.

去年，开发团队在10月底之前绘制了一幅全局，以推出第二季的比赛，并引入了新的游戏玩法，例如仓鼠开业工作室。但是发生了什么事？玩家甚至没有看到游戏的阴影，而官员只宣布了一个模糊的预告片，而没有提及时间表。这种“狼即将来临”的行动直接引发了信任危机。结果，每月活跃的用户从1亿到4400万，玩家用脚投票。

2) Airdrops turned into "air strikes," 60 billion tokens dumped.

2）气流变成“空袭”，倾倒了600亿个令牌。

The project party is madly spraying tokens to attract users—60 billion HMSTR tokens (60% of the total) entered the market through airdrops. Early players received tokens that were later valued at less than $10, humorously dubbed "dust rewards." Retail investors received tokens and immediately sold them, causing selling pressure to flood like a broken dam. Worse yet, the project has no token destruction mechanism, and inflation pressure continues.

该项目聚会正在疯狂地喷洒令牌以吸引用户-600亿HMSTR令牌（占总数的60％）通过AIRDROPS进入市场。早期的玩家收到的代币后来价值不到10美元，幽默地称为“ Dust Rewards”。散户投资者收到了代币并立即将其出售，从而造成销售压力，例如破坝。更糟糕的是，该项目没有令牌破坏机制，并且通货膨胀压力仍在继续。

3) Competition within the sector is intense, Telegram games have collectively stalled.

3）该部门内部的竞争激烈，电报游戏集体停滞不前。

The entire Ton ecosystem game is in a slump: competitor Catizen (CATI) is down 71%, Notcoin (NOT) is down 78%, and the user retention rate of Hamster coin is plummeting—active users in Q1 2025 fell below 1 million, losing over 96% from the peak. Without player support, the "gold farming game" is just a house of cards.

整个吨生态系统游戏都处于低迷状态：竞争对手Catizen（CATI）下降了71％，Notcoin（NOT）下跌了78％，仓鼠硬币的用户保留率正在骤降 - Q1 2025的活跃用户低于100万，低于峰值的96％以上。如果没有玩家的支持，“黄金养殖游戏”只是纸牌屋。

Technical analysis: Downward trend has formed a death spiral.

技术分析：向下趋势形成了死亡螺旋。

K-line ghost stories: There is no lowest, only lower.

K-line鬼故事：没有最低，只有较低。

After reaching a peak of $0.0072 last September, Hamster coin has been in a continuous decline, accumulating a drop of over 67%. It is currently showing a "downward channel": highs continue to decline, and it was unable to hold even the $0.0022 resistance. On June 12, it dropped to a low of $0.001244, with liquidity nearly exhausted.

去年9月达到0.0072美元的峰值之后，仓鼠硬币一直处于持续下降的速度，积累了67％以上。它目前显示出“向下渠道”：高点继续下降，甚至无法保持0.0022的电阻。 6月12日，它跌至0.001244美元的低点，流动性几乎耗尽。

Volume reveals the truth: Big players have already exited.

卷揭示了事实：大玩家已经退出。

On the day of the crash, the trading volume was only $20.89 million, less than 1/103 of the peak period. The shrinking volume indicates that the buyers have disappeared; a few sell orders can smash the floor price. Even more heartbreaking is that institutions had already cashed out at high levels in January—for example, DWF Labs withdrew $650,000 in a single day, leaving retail investors holding the bag.

在坠机当天，交易量仅为2089万美元，不到高峰期的1/103。收缩量表明买家已经消失了。一些卖出订单可以粉碎地板价格。更令人心碎的是，一月份的机构已经在高水平上兑现，例如，DWF实验室一天内撤回了65万美元，使零售投资者拿着袋子。

Technical indicators have all "collapsed."

技术指标都“崩溃了”。

The weekly MACD dead cross is expanding, and RSI has dropped to 23 (severely oversold but no rebound). Fibonacci retracement shows that if the $0.0012 level is breached, the next target will be $0.000865 (another halving!).

每周的MACD Dead Cross正在扩大，RSI跌至23（严重的超售，但没有反弹）。斐波那契回波表明，如果违反$ 0.0012的水平，下一个目标将为$ 0.000865（另一个减半！）。

Is Hamster coin really hopeless? Not necessarily! An entry point has emerged—the second airdrop is scheduled for summer 2025, and the team holds 15 billion tokens ready to stimulate the second quarter. For those who are interested in catching a reversal opportunity, you can set a limit order at $0.0009 to buy 500,000 tokens and try your luck.

仓鼠硬币真的绝望吗？未必！已经出现了一个入口点 - 第二个Airdrop计划于2025年夏季进行，该团队持有150亿个代币，准备刺激第二季度。对于那些有兴趣抓住逆转机会的人，您可以将限额订单定为0.0009美元，以购买500,000个令牌并尝试运气。

But for those who are thinking of selling, my advice is to cut your losses and move on. There's no point in holding on to something that is sinking. It's better to take your lumps now and live to fight another day.

但是对于那些想卖出的人来说，我的建议是减少损失并继续前进。坚持下沉的东西是没有意义的。最好现在拿起你的肿块，活着与另一天战斗。

As for those who are thinking of buying, I would advise caution. The token is down sharply, and there are no signs of a bottom in sight. If you are considering buying, I would recommend waiting for some technical indicator to show a sign of oversold rebound, such as the RSI or Stochastic Oscillator.

至于那些想购买的人，我建议您谨慎。令牌急剧下降，看不到底部的迹象。如果您正在考虑购买，我建议等待一些技术指标表现出超售的迹象，例如RSI或随机振荡器。

In the meantime, you can follow me for more analysis and insights into the crypto market. I post regularly on my profile, so be sure to check it

同时，您可以关注我进行更多分析和对加密市场的见解。我定期发布我的个人资料，所以请务必检查一下