ENA Price Prediction: Bearish Pressure Ahead of May 2 Token Unlock

Ethena's native token, ENA, is facing significant bearish pressure shaping its price prediction heading into a large token unlock

Ethena’s native token, ENA, is facing significant bearish pressure ahead of a large token unlock planned for May 2, 2025. The release of 94.19 million tokens, or 0.63% of the total supply, is a key factor influencing ENA’s near-term market outlook.

The estimated value of the unlocking is $30.3 million, which amounts to 1.7% of ENA’s market cap. Token unlocks usually introduce new supply into circulation, which can depress prices if demand doesn’t keep pace. The May 2 unlock will be followed by an even larger release on May 5, bringing 171.85 million ENA (1.15% of total supply) at an estimated value of $55.28 million or 3.09% of the market cap.

These back-to-back releases are raising serious concerns about near-term selling pressure on ENA.

From the recent low at $0.3018 to the local high at $0.3253, ENA has retraced and bounced precisely around the 0.618 level ($0.3108), a key zone that is usually encountered during strong support or resistance rallies.

The price is currently trading at $0.3217, which is close to the 0.236 retracement level at $0.3193, indicating a modest recovery attempt. However, the inability to reclaim $0.3253 would likely confirm a local top and suggest further downside potential.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading is 54.34, a neutral level indicating room for price movement in either direction. The RSI has trended higher recently, which might indicate some short-term buying activity, possibly linked to the upcoming unlock event or a broader relief rally.

Additionally, the MACD line has crossed above the signal line, and histogram bars are turning green—typically bullish indicators. While this crossover could hint at continued upward momentum, the MACD is still close to the zero line, meaning that the momentum is not yet overwhelming to warrant ruling out a reversal scenario.

As a key scenario in this ENA price prediction, if the token manages to break below the $0.3193 support after the May 2 unlock, a move toward $0.3108 (0.618 Fib) or $0.3068 (0.786 Fib) seems more likely.

On the other hand, if market sentiment manages to hold and buyers are able to absorb the unlocked supply, ENA could continue towards the $0.3253 high. A breakout above this level may open the door for a final rally toward $0.335 or higher.