Dogecoin (DOGE) Will Never Reach $1. Here's Why

The market went for meme stocks in a big way in the spring of 2021. This excitement trickled over to the cryptocurrency market as well.

Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) has had a rough go of it lately. After hitting an all-time high of nearly $0.74 in May 2021, the meme coin has lost more than 80% of its value. But despite the downturn, some people are still bullish on Dogecoin, believing that it could eventually reach $1. So, can Dogecoin really soar roughly nine-fold to reach $1 one day? Let's take a closer look.

The booms and busts of hype cycles

In the spring of 2021, the market went crazy for meme stocks. This excitement also spilled over into the cryptocurrency market. Buoyed by bullish support for the dog-themed token, Dogecoin hit its peak price in May of that year.

But that positive sentiment can change quickly, and this is exactly what happened. This isn't surprising when you realize that investor behavior toward something like Dogecoin is driven more by speculation than by anything related to the fundamentals.

Dogecoin has also experienced positive momentum in the past as high-profile supporters, such as Elon Musk and Mark Cuban, have mentioned the crypto in their posts on social media. Some people are still hoping that Tesla founder and CEO Musk, who also now owns X (formerly known as Twitter), will integrate Dogecoin as a payment method on the social media site.

Even in 2024, Dogecoin's boom-and-bust cycle continued. The crypto was up a whopping 144% from the beginning of 2024 to April 1. However, since then it has tanked more than 50%. It's not hard to see that Dogecoin will continue to have these wild price swings. These movements are unpredictable, which makes owning this token something that's not for the faint of heart.

Easy to be skeptical

Dogecoin's all-time high price was just under $0.74. For it to rise more than 800% from today's price of about $0.11 to reach the psychologically important $1 mark, the crypto would need to see significantly higher demand from the investment community. In other words, more people need to want to own it in their portfolios. I'm just not optimistic that this will ever happen.

Dogecoin's sole purpose is to be a lighthearted alternative to Bitcoin. As a result, Dogecoin is little more than a rarely used payment network that still operates an energy intensive proof-of-work consensus system to approve and process transactions.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is vastly superior. A lot of this has to do with the fact that it's decentralized and focuses on security, plus there is a fixed supply cap of 21 million bitcoins. These attractive properties make it a compelling asset to own as a store of value, which is why Bitcoin often gets compared to gold.

On the other hand, there are currently 146 billion Dogecoin tokens in circulation, which is a massive amount. To make matters worse, 10,000 new tokens are created every single minute, and there is no limit to how high that figure can go. This unfavorable setup shows just how difficult it would be for the price to rise meaningfully, as demand growth would need to outstrip a constantly expanding supply base.

It's hard to be optimistic about Dogecoin's long-term prospects. It has almost no advantages versus Bitcoin, it's not being used as a popular method of payment, and it also doesn't have a large number of developers working on advancing its capabilities.

Investors who want to add crypto exposure to their portfolios should avoid Dogecoin and instead consider Bitcoin. There are also growth tech stocks for those who are more risk-averse.

I think there's no chance that Dogecoin will ever get to $1 per token. In fact, there's a higher likelihood it will become worthless one day.