狗狗币 (DOGE) 永远不会达到 1 美元。这就是为什么

2021 年春季，市场对 meme 股票的热度很高。这种兴奋也蔓延到了加密货币市场。

Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) has had a rough go of it lately. After hitting an all-time high of nearly $0.74 in May 2021, the meme coin has lost more than 80% of its value. But despite the downturn, some people are still bullish on Dogecoin, believing that it could eventually reach $1. So, can Dogecoin really soar roughly nine-fold to reach $1 one day? Let's take a closer look.

狗狗币（加密货币：DOGE）最近经历了一段艰难的时期。在 2021 年 5 月触及近 0.74 美元的历史新高后，这款 Meme 币的价值已缩水超过 80%。但尽管经济低迷，一些人仍然看好狗狗币，认为它最终可能达到 1 美元。那么，狗狗币真的能一天飙升大约九倍达到 1 美元吗？让我们仔细看看。

The booms and busts of hype cycles

炒作周期的繁荣与萧条

In the spring of 2021, the market went crazy for meme stocks. This excitement also spilled over into the cryptocurrency market. Buoyed by bullish support for the dog-themed token, Dogecoin hit its peak price in May of that year.

2021年春天，市场疯狂追捧表情包股票。这种兴奋也蔓延到了加密货币市场。在对狗主题代币的看涨支持的推动下，狗狗币于当年 5 月达到了峰值价格。

But that positive sentiment can change quickly, and this is exactly what happened. This isn't surprising when you realize that investor behavior toward something like Dogecoin is driven more by speculation than by anything related to the fundamentals.

但这种积极情绪可能很快就会改变，而这正是发生的事情。当你意识到投资者对狗狗币之类的行为更多地是由投机而非与基本面相关的因素驱动时，这并不奇怪。

Dogecoin has also experienced positive momentum in the past as high-profile supporters, such as Elon Musk and Mark Cuban, have mentioned the crypto in their posts on social media. Some people are still hoping that Tesla founder and CEO Musk, who also now owns X (formerly known as Twitter), will integrate Dogecoin as a payment method on the social media site.

狗狗币过去也经历过积极的势头，因为埃隆·马斯克和马克·库班等知名支持者在社交媒体上的帖子中提到了这种加密货币。一些人仍然希望特斯拉创始人兼首席执行官马斯克（现在也拥有 X（以前称为 Twitter））将狗狗币作为社交媒体网站上的支付方式。

Even in 2024, Dogecoin's boom-and-bust cycle continued. The crypto was up a whopping 144% from the beginning of 2024 to April 1. However, since then it has tanked more than 50%. It's not hard to see that Dogecoin will continue to have these wild price swings. These movements are unpredictable, which makes owning this token something that's not for the faint of heart.

即使到了 2024 年，狗狗币的繁荣与萧条周期仍在继续。从 2024 年初到 4 月 1 日，该加密货币的价格飙升了 144%。然而，自那以后，它已经下跌了 50% 以上。不难看出，狗狗币的价格将继续剧烈波动。这些动作是不可预测的，这使得拥有这个令牌不适合胆小的人。

Easy to be skeptical

容易产生怀疑

Dogecoin's all-time high price was just under $0.74. For it to rise more than 800% from today's price of about $0.11 to reach the psychologically important $1 mark, the crypto would need to see significantly higher demand from the investment community. In other words, more people need to want to own it in their portfolios. I'm just not optimistic that this will ever happen.

狗狗币的历史最高价格略低于 0.74 美元。为了使其从今天约 0.11 美元的价格上涨 800% 以上，达到心理上重要的 1 美元大关，加密货币需要看到投资界显着更高的需求。换句话说，需要更多的人想要在自己的投资组合中拥有它。我只是对这种情况的发生并不乐观。

Dogecoin's sole purpose is to be a lighthearted alternative to Bitcoin. As a result, Dogecoin is little more than a rarely used payment network that still operates an energy intensive proof-of-work consensus system to approve and process transactions.

狗狗币的唯一目的是成为比特币的轻松替代品。因此，狗狗币只不过是一个很少使用的支付网络，它仍然运行一个能源密集型的工作量证明共识系统来批准和处理交易。

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is vastly superior. A lot of this has to do with the fact that it's decentralized and focuses on security, plus there is a fixed supply cap of 21 million bitcoins. These attractive properties make it a compelling asset to own as a store of value, which is why Bitcoin often gets compared to gold.

另一方面，比特币则要优越得多。这很大程度上与它的去中心化和注重安全性有关，而且比特币的固定供应上限为 2100 万个。这些有吸引力的特性使其成为一种引人注目的资产，可以作为价值储存手段，这就是为什么比特币经常被拿来与黄金进行比较。

On the other hand, there are currently 146 billion Dogecoin tokens in circulation, which is a massive amount. To make matters worse, 10,000 new tokens are created every single minute, and there is no limit to how high that figure can go. This unfavorable setup shows just how difficult it would be for the price to rise meaningfully, as demand growth would need to outstrip a constantly expanding supply base.

另一方面，目前有 1460 亿个狗狗币代币在流通，这是一个巨大的数字。更糟糕的是，每分钟都会创建 10,000 个新代币，而且这个数字可以无限高。这种不利的设置表明，价格大幅上涨是多么困难，因为需求增长需要超过不断扩大的供应基础。

It's hard to be optimistic about Dogecoin's long-term prospects. It has almost no advantages versus Bitcoin, it's not being used as a popular method of payment, and it also doesn't have a large number of developers working on advancing its capabilities.

狗狗币的长期前景很难乐观。与比特币相比，它几乎没有任何优势，它没有被用作流行的支付方式，而且也没有大量开发人员致力于提高其功能。

Investors who want to add crypto exposure to their portfolios should avoid Dogecoin and instead consider Bitcoin. There are also growth tech stocks for those who are more risk-averse.

想要在投资组合中增加加密货币投资的投资者应该避免狗狗币，而考虑比特币。对于那些更厌恶风险的人来说，还有成长型科技股。

I think there's no chance that Dogecoin will ever get to $1 per token. In fact, there's a higher likelihood it will become worthless one day.

我认为狗狗币不可能达到每个代币 1 美元。事实上，它很有可能有一天会变得毫无价值。