China-U.S. Tariff Talks Spark Market Rally

The global financial markets surged today following news that China has agreed to begin formal tariff negotiations with the U.S. Treasury.

The global financial markets rallied today as news broke that China has agreed to begin formal tariff negotiations with the U.S. Treasury. This long-awaited move brought relief from ongoing trade war fears and sent risk-on assets like Bitcoin (BTC) soaring.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on X that high-level talks will take place over the weekend, signaling a shift in tone and potentially defusing one of the largest geopolitical threats to market stability.

“Good news! We've reached an agreement with China to begin formal discussions on tariffs. High-level talks will take place this weekend. A positive step toward resolving trade issues and promoting economic cooperation between our two nations,” Bessent wrote.

The news comes after months of speculation and rumors, with both sides hinting at a willingness to engage in dialogue but no concrete steps being taken. The U.S. imposed tariffs on nearly half of Chinese goods in 2019, sparking a tit-for-tat trade war that escalated tensions and weighed on global economic growth.

President Biden threatened further tariffs on Chinese goods in December 2023 after U.S. officials accused China of engaging in unfair trade practices and failing to keep promises made during the “Phase One” trade deal signed in 2020. These tariffs were largely focused on solar panels and had been planned for months. However, they were ultimately canceled, and the two sides agreed to begin new talks on tariffs and other economic issues.

The decision to begin formal tariff negotiations was met with optimism by market participants, who pushed stocks and cryptocurrencies higher in early Friday trading. World markets were already poised for gains after a series of positive developments in recent weeks, including better-than-expected economic data from China and the U.S.

Bitcoin Regains Critical Fib Level As Volume Remains Low

Bitcoin closed back above the critical $95,000 Fibonacci cluster, a level it struggled with for nearly two weeks. This bullish close invalidates the short-term bearish pullback scenario and sets up BTC for a potential move toward $100,000. The coin remains above the daily TBO Cloud and continues to print strong bullish signals on daily and weekly timeframes.

However, daily volume remains underwhelming—raising concerns about the sustainability of the rally.

Previous rallies in October 2023 and October 2022 were accompanied by massive volume inflows. Without similar volume support, this breakout risks fizzling unless positive sentiment from macro news (like successful tariff talks or FOMC decisions) brings fresh capital into the crypto market.

Dominance Stats Show BTC Strength, Altcoins Lagging

Stablecoin dominance remains trapped inside the daily TBO Cloud, signaling ongoing “bearish consolidation.” Bitcoin dominance, meanwhile, printed a new local high above 65%, with daily RSI above 83.

Top 10 Dominance continues to weaken, with daily RSI failing key support and no reversal signals in sight. OTHERS.D shows some signs of life—rebounding off support and signaling a potential RSI Reset—but lacks the momentum needed to signal a full breakout just yet.

TOTAL market cap is nearing TBO Resistance at $2.97 trillion again. OBV and RSI both look constructive, but volume continues to disappoint. TOTAL2 (excluding BTC) confirmed a TBO Open Long on yesterday’s close, which is a bullish signal, but again—volume remains absent. The OTHERS market cap is pressing long-term resistance for the twelfth time in as many days. A breakout feels inevitable, but timing remains elusive.

BVOL7D Breakdown Could Spell Sharp Market Move

BTC volatility remains historically low, but the BVOL7D printed a second TBO Breakdown and is starting to inch higher. If it continues lower toward the “2” level, it could trigger a sharp market move—up or down. Past precedent suggests a pump is more likely, especially given that BTC is still above the TBO Cloud and recent price action resembles setups seen in January 2023.

As tariff fears subside, Bitcoin’s relative strength to gold continues to improve. PAXG/BTC is following a similar pattern seen before BTC’s October 2023 rally, while BTC/Gold is bouncing off the daily TBO Fast line in what looks like a textbook springboard move.

ETH continues to sleep through its own upgrade event, showing no reaction to the upcoming Pectra update. BNB, SOL, and LTC had stronger performances, with LTC posting a 14% gain and making a new local high. AAVE confirmed a TBO Open Long, while CRO is attempting to do the same.

Smaller-cap assets like KAITO, JTO, and XCN are showing bullish divergence signals or retracing to key support lines, setting up potential opportunities. However, volume continues to lag on most charts, a key theme across the board.