A new chapter of the rivalry between the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning will be written in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

This is the fourth time in the last five years that the Bolts and Cats will meet in the playoffs.

A new chapter of the rivalry between the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning will be written in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. This is the fourth time in the last five years that the Bolts and Cats will meet in the playoffs.

Tampa Bay took the first two series in 2020-21 and 2021-22, while Florida got some revenge with a gentleman’s sweep in 2023-24.

The Panthers are a slight -115 favorite to win the best-of-7 series at bet365.

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Panthers vs. Lightning series betting preview

It is interesting to see the Panthers as a slight favorite in this series.

The Cats deserve credit for being the defending champions, and they’ve gone to back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals, but they’ve been trending down of late, while the Bolts have done the opposite.

Tampa Bay went 15-6-4 in its last 25 “meaningful” games (Tampa’s season finale against the Rangers didn’t matter, and the Bolts sat plenty of regulars), and put up some of the best 5-on-5 stats in the NHL in that span.

Only two teams (Los Angeles and St. Louis) had a better goal difference at 5-on-5 than Tampa over its last 25 contests.

While the Bolts surged down the stretch, the Panthers found things a little more difficult.

The absence of Matthew Tkachuk and Aaron Ekblad certainly impacted Florida’s performance, and the Cats had to embed a couple of key new players, Seth Jones and Brad Marchand, whom they acquired at the trade deadline.

Ekblad will return from his suspension for Game 3 of the series, while Tkachuk’s status for the best-of-seven remains murky.

Panthers vs. Lightning series pick

On the surface, this series being priced as a virtual coin flip makes sense.

These two teams have combined to win three of the last five Stanley Cups, and one of them has made it to the Final in each of those seasons. They were neck-and-neck all season, with Tampa pulling away during the final week of the campaign. They are coached by two future Hall-of-Famers, and their goalies are going to the Hall too.

Betting on the NHL?

But looking a little deeper, the numbers favor Tampa Bay. The Bolts have been on the ascendancy throughout the second half, and their statistical data suggests they should be one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. Florida’s stretch run has been more up-and-down, and they are dealing with some roster issues that could put them behind the 8-ball in the early stages of this best-of-seven. When the margins are this tight, that’s enough to go with the other team.

The play: Tampa Bay -105