Cathie Wood Sees End of “Rolling Recession,” Forecasts Productivity-Driven Growth

Ark Invest's CEO and Chief Investment Officer Cathie Wood believes the U.S. economy is emerging from what she describes as a “rolling recession”

Optimistic outlooks on the U.S. economy emerging from what she calls a “rolling recession” over the past three years, shifting towards a productivity-driven growth phase fueled by artificial intelligence and technological innovation.

This emerging phase of economic transformation is highlighted by emerging productivity gains, particularly in the government sector, according to the innovation-focused investor. To illustrate this point, she mentioned a video featuring FDA leadership discussing how generative AI has reduced tasks that previously took days to mere minutes. “There’s a lot of productivity, I think, evolving in the ecosystem,” signaled.

This productivity surge will have significant macroeconomic implications, according to , with lower-than-expected inflation and a capital-friendly environment. “I think we’re going to see a lot more productivity-driven growth, which means inflation is going to be much lower than expected, which is going to be very capital friendly.”

At the same time, she brushed aside recent market volatility and concerns about tariffs, viewing the current administration’s trade policies as ultimately beneficial due to President Trump's focus on reducing tax rates globally.

“What he’s looking for, if you listen to his rhetoric, is to reduce tax rates as much as possible around the world. So this is a global tax cut. This is a good thing,” explained.

This statement comes amid recent reports that President Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on all goods from China and a 10% tariff on other goods, aiming to pressure Beijing into making trade concessions.

Maintaining a bullish stance on Bitcoin with a 2030 base case target of “$700 to $750,000” and a bull case scenario of $1.5 million, attributed this projection to Bitcoin's potential to capture market share from gold as a store of value, signaled by increasing institutional adoption and emerging market applications in areas like emerging markets. “We think we have miles to go. Certainly, we’re seeing more and more institutional activity. But I think they’re just testing the waters,” she said.

On another of Ark’s high-conviction investments, disclosed a five-year price target of $2,600 per share for Tesla and expressed even greater confidence in this projection than before due to emerging opportunities in commercial robotaxis. However, this forecast doesn't fully account for the company’s humanoid robot initiatives—a market she estimates at “$26 trillion revenue opportunity” over the next 5-10 years.

Highlighting Tesla’s competitive advantage in innovating simultaneously across three critical platforms—robotics (including robotaxis), energy storage, and artificial intelligence—compared to global competitors, including those in China, which she characterized as “number 2 to 10” in the humanoid robot space, according to Elon Musk.

As part of Ark’s investment strategy, she recently revealed an increase in the firm’s positions in several technology companies, such as Nvidia, AMD, and CRISPR Therapeutics, showcasing her continued confidence in innovation-driven growth despite market fluctuations.

With markets recovering from recent lows and technology companies advancing capabilities in AI and automation, her perspective suggests a transition from economic uncertainty to a new phase of growth powered by technological transformation and productivity enhancements.