Cardano (ADA) Emerges as a Contender in the Growing Race for Altcoin-based ETFs

Cardano (ADA) has emerged as a notable contender in the growing race for altcoin-based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

Crypto exchange-traded funds have been a hot topic for some time now, with products focused on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) already available in the U.S. However, there's also been a growing race for altcoin-based ETFs, which are slowly beginning to gain traction.

According to Bloomberg's analysis, Cardano (ADA) has a 75% probability of introducing a spot ETF by 2025. While this chance is statistically favorable, ADA's market behavior and on-chain performance suggest the token could be struggling to live up to that optimism.

As Q2 kicks off with the broader crypto market in a strong rebound—surging to a $3 trillion total market cap and Bitcoin past $96,000—one would expect high-cap altcoins to follow suit. However, Cardano has yet to gain meaningful momentum.

Typically, Bitcoin's price breakout paves the way for a broad market rally, but despite this factor and the potential for an ETF to spur demand, ADA is still shy of the $0.80 resistance level it last touched in late Q1. Instead, it's hovering around the $0.70 mark with limited buying pressure.

One of the reasons behind ADA's stall may be consistent sell pressure during rallies. Every time the price approaches $0.70, on-chain data shows a spike in the transaction volume in profit-to-loss ratio. This suggests a large number of holders are cashing out as soon as ADA shows signs of recovery, effectively capping its potential upside.

Furthermore, Cardano's Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has hit a three-month high, indicating that the asset's valuation may be running ahead of its actual utility. In essence, the network's market cap is outpacing the level of active transaction activity, which raises concerns about speculative pricing and a lack of real user growth.

Together, these factors point to weak buyer demand and a sluggish capital inflow for ADA. With resistance forming at key price levels and limited technical momentum, the risk of a correction could outweigh the chances of a breakout—even if the ETF approval odds remain statistically favorable.

In the meantime, the altcoin ETF race is heating up, with Solana (SOL) and XRP having a 90% chance of securing an ETF approval this year, according to Bloomberg.

Solana's advantage appears to be growing, boosted by recent developments like the launch of the TRUMP coin on its network and stronger trading metrics across the board.

Cardano, in contrast, seems caught in neutral, with the TOTAL3 index, which tracks the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, also nearing a major supply wall—signaling potential trouble for altcoins trying to push higher.

Additionally, Bitcoin's market dominance is climbing toward 65%, a level that historically coincides with money flowing out of altcoins and into BTC.

As institutional capital becomes increasingly concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum, the remaining altcoins are now in a race to attract attention—and an ETF approval could be the winning ticket.

However, for Cardano to remain competitive, it must break above its current resistance and reignite bullish sentiment. A strong technical performance would strengthen the case for ETF approval and help counter the narrative that ADA is lagging behind its peers.

Ultimately, while a 75% chance for an ADA ETF sounds promising, the current state of Cardano's price action and on-chain signals suggest there's still work to be done.

If momentum doesn't shift soon, ADA risks being left behind as investors and institutions flock to stronger-performing assets like Solana.

As the race toward the first approved altcoin ETF heats up, every move counts—and for Cardano, closing the performance gap could be critical to staying in the game.