Cardano（ADA）在基于Altcoin的ETF的不断发展竞赛中成为竞争者

Cardano（ADA）已成为基于Altcoin的交易所交易基金（ETFS）的不断增长的竞争者

Crypto exchange-traded funds have been a hot topic for some time now, with products focused on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) already available in the U.S. However, there's also been a growing race for altcoin-based ETFs, which are slowly beginning to gain traction.

一段时间以来，由加密交易所交易的资金一直是一个热门话题，在美国，产品集中在比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）上，但是，基于Altcoin的ETF的竞赛也在不断增长，这些ETF逐渐开始逐渐获得吸引力。

According to Bloomberg's analysis, Cardano (ADA) has a 75% probability of introducing a spot ETF by 2025. While this chance is statistically favorable, ADA's market behavior and on-chain performance suggest the token could be struggling to live up to that optimism.

根据彭博社的分析，Cardano（ADA）在2025年之前有75％的可能性引入ETF。虽然这种机会在统计上是有利的，但ADA的市场行为和链上的表现表明，标志可能会努力辜负这种乐观。

As Q2 kicks off with the broader crypto market in a strong rebound—surging to a $3 trillion total market cap and Bitcoin past $96,000—one would expect high-cap altcoins to follow suit. However, Cardano has yet to gain meaningful momentum.

随着第二季度从更广泛的加密货币市场开始，重新篮板（超过96,000美元）的总市值和比特币的3万亿美元，一个人会预计高额替代币会效仿。但是，卡尔达诺尚未获得有意义的动力。

Typically, Bitcoin's price breakout paves the way for a broad market rally, but despite this factor and the potential for an ETF to spur demand, ADA is still shy of the $0.80 resistance level it last touched in late Q1. Instead, it's hovering around the $0.70 mark with limited buying pressure.

通常，比特币的价格突破为广泛的市场集会铺平了道路，但是尽管这一因素以及ETF刺激了需求的潜力，ADA仍然远远超过了它在第一季代后期触及的0.80美元的阻力水平。取而代之的是，它徘徊在$ 0.70的左右，购买压力有限。

One of the reasons behind ADA's stall may be consistent sell pressure during rallies. Every time the price approaches $0.70, on-chain data shows a spike in the transaction volume in profit-to-loss ratio. This suggests a large number of holders are cashing out as soon as ADA shows signs of recovery, effectively capping its potential upside.

ADA摊位背后的原因之一可能是集会期间持续的卖出压力。每次价格接近$ 0.70时，链上数据都会显示交易量的利润与损失比率激增。这表明，一旦ADA显示出恢复的迹象，就有大量的持有人兑现，从而有效地限制了其潜在上升空间。

Furthermore, Cardano's Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has hit a three-month high, indicating that the asset's valuation may be running ahead of its actual utility. In essence, the network's market cap is outpacing the level of active transaction activity, which raises concerns about speculative pricing and a lack of real user growth.

此外，Cardano与交易（NVT）比率的网络价值达到了三个月的高度，这表明资产的估值可能比其实际实用程序领先。本质上，网络的市值超过了积极交易活动的水平，这引起了人们对投机定价和缺乏实际用户增长的担忧。

Together, these factors point to weak buyer demand and a sluggish capital inflow for ADA. With resistance forming at key price levels and limited technical momentum, the risk of a correction could outweigh the chances of a breakout—even if the ETF approval odds remain statistically favorable.

这些因素共同表明了买方的需求疲软，而ADA的资本流入却缓慢。随着关键价格水平的阻力形成和技术势头有限，更正的风险可能超过突破的机会，即使ETF批准赔率在统计上仍然有利。

In the meantime, the altcoin ETF race is heating up, with Solana (SOL) and XRP having a 90% chance of securing an ETF approval this year, according to Bloomberg.

据彭博社称，与此同时，Altcoin ETF竞赛正在加热，Solana（Sol）和XRP今年有90％的机会获得ETF批准的机会。

Solana's advantage appears to be growing, boosted by recent developments like the launch of the TRUMP coin on its network and stronger trading metrics across the board.

索拉纳（Solana）的优势似乎正在增长，这是由于最新发展的推动力，例如特朗普硬币在其网络上的推出以及全面的贸易指标。

Cardano, in contrast, seems caught in neutral, with the TOTAL3 index, which tracks the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, also nearing a major supply wall—signaling potential trouble for altcoins trying to push higher.

相比之下，Cardano似乎陷入了中性状态，总计3个指数跟踪了不包括比特币和以太坊的总加密货币市值，也接近了一个主要的供应墙，这给试图推高更高的AltCoins带来了潜在的麻烦。

Additionally, Bitcoin's market dominance is climbing toward 65%, a level that historically coincides with money flowing out of altcoins and into BTC.

此外，比特币的市场优势正在攀升至65％，这一水平与从山寨币流出并流入BTC的水平相吻合。

As institutional capital becomes increasingly concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum, the remaining altcoins are now in a race to attract attention—and an ETF approval could be the winning ticket.

随着机构资本越来越集中于比特币和以太坊，剩余的山寨币现在正在引起人们的注意，而ETF批准可能是获胜的票。

However, for Cardano to remain competitive, it must break above its current resistance and reignite bullish sentiment. A strong technical performance would strengthen the case for ETF approval and help counter the narrative that ADA is lagging behind its peers.

但是，要使Cardano保持竞争力，它必须超越目前的抵抗力并重新启动看涨情绪。强大的技术表现将加强ETF批准的案例，并有助于抵抗ADA落后于同龄人的叙述。

Ultimately, while a 75% chance for an ADA ETF sounds promising, the current state of Cardano's price action and on-chain signals suggest there's still work to be done.

最终，尽管ADA ETF的机会有75％的机会听起来很有希望，但Cardano的价格动作和链上信号的当前状态表明仍有工作要做。

If momentum doesn't shift soon, ADA risks being left behind as investors and institutions flock to stronger-performing assets like Solana.

如果势头不会很快变化，那么随着投资者和机构涌向索拉纳（Solana）等表现更强大的资产，ADA可能会被抛在后面。

As the race toward the first approved altcoin ETF heats up, every move counts—and for Cardano, closing the performance gap could be critical to staying in the game.

随着首次批准的Altcoin ETF的比赛升温，每一步都很重要 - 对于Cardano来说，缩小性能差距对于留在游戏中至关重要。