BTC stalls at key resistance with bearish signs mounting

Bitcoin continues to struggle just below the $95,000 resistance level, with yesterday's candle showing a lower low under $92K despite closing green.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to stall just below the $95,000 resistance as bearish signs mount, though altcoins are showing increasing strength with a growing number of TBO signals and bullish confirmation signals.

BTC stalls at key resistance with bearish signs mounting

Bitcoin continues to struggle just below the $95,000 resistance level. As yesterday’s candle closed green, it also formed a lower low, dipping below $92K. Daily RSI remains overbought above 70 but is also trending lower with lower highs and lows. Additionally, we can see that volume has not crossed its 30-day moving average since April 25, which is concerning for momentum.

On the 4-hour chart, TBT Bearish Divergence Clusters have appeared again, the first since BTC’s top at $109K in January. While no TBO Close Long has printed yet, the frequency and clustering of these signals are still noteworthy.

The bullish counterpoint is that BTC remains above the daily TBO Cloud for eight straight days and the macro weekly chart still looks solid. However, with the lack of progress and strength, a pullback to $82K seems like the most likely scenario unless we see BTC decisively close above $95K.

Stablecoin dominance remains weak and rangebound within the TBO Cloud, while Bitcoin Dominance continues strong despite having lower RSI. Top 10 Dominance is still bearish, and OTHERS.D is now pulling back, which could lead to a break of ascending RSI support. However, we can see that during November 2024, we saw some chopping occur in the RSI before any major push higher.

Yesterday, TOTAL3 confirmed a TBO Open Long—its first since September—which signals the end of bearish control and the start of a new uptrend. We can also see that OTHERS market cap is in the process of printing a TBO Open Long, which would support a broader altcoin recovery. These signals, though early, are still encouraging and reminiscent of the pre-pump setups we saw in late 2024.

Market structure is showing some interesting correlations to pre-November 2024 rally

BVOL7D, which measures BTC volatility, is oddly falling back into the Bounce Zone, which is something we saw before the last big market rally in October 2024. We are also seeing multiple correlations to past market conditions—especially from September to November 2024—emerge again, which reinforces the idea that we might be setting up for a similar bullish breakout pattern.

Altcoins show increasing strength with TBO signals lighting up

We can see that Ethereum has stalled despite its TBO Close Short last week, while XRP and SOL are flashing 4h TBO Close Longs—a reminder to take profits and watch for trend shifts. Many altcoins are also now printing Open Longs on the daily time frame, including VET, POL, TIA, and MNT. Charts like KCS and BERA are showing breakout clusters or early bullish divergence signals.

Most notably, the TBT Forecaster flipped from Bearish to Bullish for ALTs five days ago—its first bullish flip since January. This shift adds another confirmation that altcoin recovery is unfolding, even if BTC pulls back in the short term.

Bottom line

BTC is at a critical tipping point. Without a close above $95K soon, we may see a rejection and a retracement to $82K. However, the macro bullish structure remains intact.

In the meantime, altcoins are showing increasing strength with a growing number of TBO Open Longs and bullish confirmation signals. As always, traders need to stay nimble—protecting profits but also staying open to further upside, especially as the historical patterns suggest that a larger move may soon unfold.