Bitwise CIO's 5 Bold Projections for Bitcoin's Halving in 2028

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts significant changes in the Bitcoin market leading up to the 2028 halving. Hougan anticipates a decline in Bitcoin's volatility by 50%, boosted by the entry of new investors through spot Bitcoin ETFs. He also forecasts 5% allocations to Bitcoin becoming commonplace in target-date portfolios, driving institutional adoption. Hougan projects over $200 billion in inflows for Bitcoin ETFs, likening their growth to the rise of gold ETFs. Additionally, he suggests central banks may allocate funds to Bitcoin before the halving, potentially triggering a price increase. Lastly, Hougan predicts that Bitcoin's price will surpass $250,000 by 2028, citing its transition from a speculative asset to one with real-world utility and the growing mainstream adoption.

Bitwise CIO's Five Bold Predictions for Bitcoin's Next Halving in 2028

In a comprehensive report, Matt Hougan, Chief Information Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, has shared five compelling predictions for the upcoming Halving of the Bitcoin (BTC) network, slated for 2028. His insights shed light on the potential transformations that await the world's leading cryptocurrency.

1. Damping Volatility: New Investors and ETFs as Catalysts

Hougan anticipates a significant reduction in Bitcoin's volatility, predicting a decline of 50%. He attributes this trend to the influx of new investors through the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market. As financial advisors, family offices, and institutions enter the fold, their distinct investment strategies, including portfolio rebalancing and consistent investments, are expected to introduce counter-cyclical flows, effectively mitigating Bitcoin's susceptibility to price swings.

2. Growing Portfolio Allocations: Bitcoin's Institutional Embrace

Hougan envisions a future where Bitcoin allocations in portfolios will become commonplace, reaching 5% in target-date portfolios. As Bitcoin's volatility diminishes and it gains wider acceptance among institutional investors, Hougan anticipates an uptick in typical portfolio allocations.

3. ETF Surge: Bitcoin ETFs Poised for Massive Inflows

The Bitwise CIO forecasts that Bitcoin ETFs will witness an influx of over $200 billion in inflows. He emphasizes their exceptional growth, citing their status as the fastest-growing new ETF category in history. Hougan believes the ETF market is still in its nascent stages, with major institutions and wirehouses initiating their due diligence. Drawing parallels with the historical growth trajectory of gold ETFs, he anticipates a similar surge in Bitcoin ETF popularity.

4. Central Bank Adoption: Bitcoin's Allure for Monetary Authorities

In a bold projection, Hougan suggests that central banks may allocate funds to Bitcoin ahead of the next Halving event. He notes that central banks have traditionally been substantial investors in gold, amassing significant reserves. However, with Bitcoin's unique characteristics as a non-debt currency and its practical advantages over gold in payment and settlement functions, Hougan believes it will captivate the attention of central banks. "There is also an element of game theory here," Hougan remarks. "A major central bank adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset would be a game-changer and, I believe, contribute to a dramatic increase in prices. Will one central bank try to outpace the others?"

5. Price Target: Bitcoin's Ascent to $250,000

Hougan boldly forecasts that Bitcoin will trade above $250,000 by 2028, a staggering 280% increase from current levels. He attributes Bitcoin's previous exponential growth to its transition from a speculative asset to one with tangible utility. Factors such as declining volatility, enhanced custody options, low correlation with traditional stocks, improved accessibility through ETFs, and growing institutional adoption all contribute to Hougan's optimism regarding Bitcoin's future trajectory.

"With ETFs launched and accumulating assets—and major Wall Street firms aligning behind Bitcoin—I suspect the asset will continue to move further into the mainstream," Hougan concludes. "At $250,000, Bitcoin would be a $5 trillion asset. Could it go higher? Of course. But $250,000 would represent solid progress between halvings, and I think we'll see at least that."

Technical Analysis

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $64,500, down nearly 3% in the past 24 hours after retesting the $67,000 mark on Tuesday and failing to consolidate above that level.

Disclaimer: This article is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves risk, and it is essential to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.