Bitwise CIO 对 2028 年比特币减半的 5 个大胆预测

Bitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 预测，比特币市场将在 2028 年减半之前发生重大变化。 Hougan 预计，在新投资者通过现货比特币 ETF 进入的推动下，比特币的波动性将下降 50%。他还预测，5% 的比特币配置将在目标日期投资组合中变得普遍，从而推动机构采用。 Hougan 预计比特币 ETF 的资金流入将超过 2000 亿美元，并将其增长与黄金 ETF 的崛起进行比较。此外，他建议央行可能在减半之前将资金分配给比特币，这可能会引发价格上涨。最后，Hougan 预测，到 2028 年，比特币的价格将超过 250,000 美元，理由是比特币已从一种投机资产转变为具有现实世界实用性的资产，并且越来越被主流采用。

Bitwise CIO's Five Bold Predictions for Bitcoin's Next Halving in 2028

Bitwise CIO 对比特币 2028 年下一次减半的五个大胆预测

In a comprehensive report, Matt Hougan, Chief Information Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, has shared five compelling predictions for the upcoming Halving of the Bitcoin (BTC) network, slated for 2028. His insights shed light on the potential transformations that await the world's leading cryptocurrency.

Bitwise 首席信息官 (CIO) Matt Hougan 在一份综合报告中分享了对 2028 年即将到来的比特币 (BTC) 网络减半的五个令人信服的预测。他的见解揭示了等待世界的潜在变革。领先的加密货币。

1. Damping Volatility: New Investors and ETFs as Catalysts

1. 抑制波动性：新投资者和 ETF 作为催化剂

Hougan anticipates a significant reduction in Bitcoin's volatility, predicting a decline of 50%. He attributes this trend to the influx of new investors through the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market. As financial advisors, family offices, and institutions enter the fold, their distinct investment strategies, including portfolio rebalancing and consistent investments, are expected to introduce counter-cyclical flows, effectively mitigating Bitcoin's susceptibility to price swings.

Hougan 预计比特币的波动性将大幅降低，预计下跌 50%。他将这一趋势归因于新投资者通过现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）市场涌入。随着财务顾问、家族办公室和机构的加入，他们独特的投资策略，包括投资组合再平衡和持续投资，预计将引入反周期流动，有效减轻比特币对价格波动的敏感性。

2. Growing Portfolio Allocations: Bitcoin's Institutional Embrace

2. 不断增长的投资组合配置：比特币的机构拥抱

Hougan envisions a future where Bitcoin allocations in portfolios will become commonplace, reaching 5% in target-date portfolios. As Bitcoin's volatility diminishes and it gains wider acceptance among institutional investors, Hougan anticipates an uptick in typical portfolio allocations.

Hougan 预计，未来投资组合中的比特币配置将变得司空见惯，在目标日期投资组合中的占比将达到 5%。随着比特币波动性的减弱以及它在机构投资者中获得更广泛的接受，Hougan 预计典型的投资组合配置将会增加。

3. ETF Surge: Bitcoin ETFs Poised for Massive Inflows

3. ETF激增：比特币ETF有望迎来大规模资金流入

The Bitwise CIO forecasts that Bitcoin ETFs will witness an influx of over $200 billion in inflows. He emphasizes their exceptional growth, citing their status as the fastest-growing new ETF category in history. Hougan believes the ETF market is still in its nascent stages, with major institutions and wirehouses initiating their due diligence. Drawing parallels with the historical growth trajectory of gold ETFs, he anticipates a similar surge in Bitcoin ETF popularity.

Bitwise CIO 预测，比特币 ETF 的资金流入将超过 2000 亿美元。他强调了它们的非凡增长，并称它们是历史上增长最快的新 ETF 类别。 Hougan认为，ETF市场仍处于起步阶段，主要机构和电线公司都已启动尽职调查。与黄金 ETF 的历史增长轨迹相似，他预计比特币 ETF 的受欢迎程度也会出现类似的飙升。

4. Central Bank Adoption: Bitcoin's Allure for Monetary Authorities

4. 央行采用：比特币对货币当局的吸引力

In a bold projection, Hougan suggests that central banks may allocate funds to Bitcoin ahead of the next Halving event. He notes that central banks have traditionally been substantial investors in gold, amassing significant reserves. However, with Bitcoin's unique characteristics as a non-debt currency and its practical advantages over gold in payment and settlement functions, Hougan believes it will captivate the attention of central banks. "There is also an element of game theory here," Hougan remarks. "A major central bank adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset would be a game-changer and, I believe, contribute to a dramatic increase in prices. Will one central bank try to outpace the others?"

胡根大胆预测，央行可能会在下一次减半事件之前将资金分配给比特币。他指出，传统上央行一直是黄金的重要投资者，积累了大量储备。不过，凭借比特币作为非债务货币的独特特性，以及在支付结算功能上相对于黄金的实际优势，Hougan相信它将引起各国央行的关注。 “这里还有博弈论的元素，”霍根评论道。 “一家主要央行采用比特币作为储备资产将改变游戏规则，我相信，这将导致价格大幅上涨。有一家央行会试图超越其他央行吗？”

5. Price Target: Bitcoin's Ascent to $250,000

5. 价格目标：比特币升至 250,000 美元

Hougan boldly forecasts that Bitcoin will trade above $250,000 by 2028, a staggering 280% increase from current levels. He attributes Bitcoin's previous exponential growth to its transition from a speculative asset to one with tangible utility. Factors such as declining volatility, enhanced custody options, low correlation with traditional stocks, improved accessibility through ETFs, and growing institutional adoption all contribute to Hougan's optimism regarding Bitcoin's future trajectory.

Hougan 大胆预测，到 2028 年，比特币交易价格将超过 25 万美元，较目前水平增长 280%，令人震惊。他将比特币之前的指数级增长归因于其从投机资产向有形效用资产的转变。波动性下降、托管选择增强、与传统股票的相关性较低、ETF 的可及性提高以及机构采用率不断提高等因素都促使 Hougan 对比特币的未来轨迹持乐观态度。

"With ETFs launched and accumulating assets—and major Wall Street firms aligning behind Bitcoin—I suspect the asset will continue to move further into the mainstream," Hougan concludes. "At $250,000, Bitcoin would be a $5 trillion asset. Could it go higher? Of course. But $250,000 would represent solid progress between halvings, and I think we'll see at least that."

“随着 ETF 的推出和资产的积累，以及华尔街主要公司纷纷支持比特币，我怀疑该资产将继续进一步成为主流，”Hougan 总结道。 “如果价格达到 25 万美元，比特币将成为价值 5 万亿美元的资产。它还能走得更高吗？当然。但 25 万美元将代表减半之间的坚实进展，我认为我们至少会看到这一点。”

Technical Analysis

技术分析

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $64,500, down nearly 3% in the past 24 hours after retesting the $67,000 mark on Tuesday and failing to consolidate above that level.

截至撰写本文时，BTC 交易价格为 64,500 美元，在周二重新测试 67,000 美元大关并未能在该水平上方盘整后，过去 24 小时内下跌了近 3%。

Disclaimer: This article is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves risk, and it is essential to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.

免责声明：本文仅供参考，不应被视为投资建议。投资加密货币涉及风险，在做出任何投资决定之前进行彻底的研究至关重要。