Bitcoin Has a Slight Chance of Dropping Nearly 26% in the First Quarter of 2025 to Around $75,000, a Crypto Analyst Says — But Other Crypto Commentators Are Less Confident About a Fall

Derive head of research Dr. Sean Dawson said in a Jan. 28 markets report viewed by Cointelegraph that the probability of Bitcoin

A crypto analyst is predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) could drop nearly 26% in the first quarter of 2025, falling to around $75,000. However, some crypto commentators are less confident about a fall.

Dr. Sean Dawson, Derive head of research, stated in a Jan. 28 markets report viewed by Cointelegraph that the probability of Bitcoin dropping back toward the $75,000 price point has increased slightly. According to Dawson, this is based on Bitcoin’s at-the-money implied volatility spiking from 52% to 76%, a sign of increased demand for put options “to protect against downside risk.”

Bitcoin dropped 6.5% on Jan. 27 to $97,906 amid a broader crypto and stock market decline triggered by the latest AI model from China-based artificial intelligence project DeepSeek. Bitcoin has since bounced back above the $100,000 mark, trading at $102,100 at the time of publication, per CoinMarketCap data.

Dawson said the slight uptick in the probability of Bitcoin heading back toward $75,000 “reflects a shift in market sentiment toward bearishness as traders adjust to rising uncertainty.”

The last time Bitcoin was trading near $75,000 was on Nov. 8, just three days after Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential victory. It then went on a month-long rally that saw BTC reach the long-awaited $100,000 price level for the first time on Dec. 5.