Bitcoin Reserve Odds Drop as US Policy Analysts Predict Pushback

The prospect of the United States incorporating Bitcoin into its financial reserves remains highly debated. Many experts consider the chances slim

The prospect of the United States incorporating Bitcoin into its financial reserves has sparked widespread discussion within the crypto community. While some experts remain optimistic about the possibility, others present a more skeptical outlook.

Prediction platforms and analysts offer contrasting views on the likelihood of Bitcoin entering the US reserve strategy. On Polymarket, users assign only a 29% probability that President-elect Donald Trump will introduce a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office. This marks a steep drop from post-election optimism, where odds reached 60%.

Meanwhile, prediction platform Kalshi places the odds of Bitcoin becoming part of the US financial reserves by January 2026 at 56%. This timeframe aligns with the platform's users predicting a 55% chance of Bitcoin being legalized in the US by the same date.

Proponents of Bitcoin as a reserve asset envision it as a natural complement to existing reserves, such as gold and oil. They highlight Bitcoin's scarcity, divisibility, and portability as valuable qualities for a reserve currency.

However, critics argue that political resistance and current economic conditions make a Bitcoin reserve unlikely. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, doubts the feasibility of the US adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset under Trump’s administration.

Ju suggests that such a shift would only occur if the nation's global economic dominance faced a significant threat. He draws parallels between today’s Bitcoin advocates and past campaigns for a return to the gold standard.

In both cases, these efforts aimed to position alternative assets as solutions to economic uncertainties. However, historical trends suggest resistance to single-asset reliance.

For instance, calls to reinstate the gold standard in the late 1990s were dismissed, with the US opting to innovate its way out of economic challenges. Ju predicts Bitcoin may face similar pushback unless the country’s economic standing weakens.

“If Trump succeeds in showcasing U.S. economic resilience, reinforcing the dollar’s supremacy, and boosting his approval ratings, it’s unclear if he would maintain the strong pro-Bitcoin stance he demonstrated during his campaign. He could easily step back from his Bitcoin advocacy, citing changing priorities, without alienating his voter base,” Ju stated.

Despite skepticism, some experts champion Bitcoin’s potential role in reshaping global finance. Mathew Sigel of VanEck recently argued that the US could reduce its national debt by up to 36% by 2050 through adopting a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Sigel envisions Bitcoin becoming a leading settlement currency in global trade, particularly for nations seeking to bypass U.S. sanctions.