Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Bands Model Hints the Asset's Next Peak Could Be at $77,600

Data from a Bitcoin pricing model based on an on-chain indicator suggests that $77,600 may be the level where the asset will see its next peak.

On-chain data from a Bitcoin pricing bands model suggests that $77,600 could be the next peak for the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin MVRV Bands May Hint At Next Top For BTC

In a new X post, an analyst named Ali covered what the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Pricing Bands model might indicate for the next move in the crypto’s price.

The MVRV ratio is a popular on-chain indicator that compares the Bitcoin market cap and realized cap. The former is simply the total valuation of the asset at the current spot price, whereas the latter is a model that calculates the asset’s cap by assuming that the “true” value of any coin in circulation is the price at which it was last moved on the blockchain.

The last transfer of any coin on the network was likely the last time it changed hands, and hence, the price at that time would be its current cost basis. As such, the realized cap keeps track of the sum of the cost basis of every holder in the market.

Therefore, the MVRV ratio tells us how the value that investors currently hold (the market cap) compares against the value they put in (the realized cap).

Using this indicator, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has created a pricing bands model. Here is a chart showing what these pricing bands look like.

The pricing bands in this model represent levels corresponding to a particular deviation from the mean for the MVRV ratio. As per the chart, the crypto’s current price level is denoting a +0.5 standard deviation (SD) from the mean for the indicator.

Specifically, the price level around $65,100 is where the MVRV ratio would be at +0.5 SD above its mean. The next major pricing band in this model is +1 SD, which currently corresponds to around $77,600.

Historically, this level has been where at least local tops have been likely to form for BTC. As the chart shows, the rally top back in March also took place when the coin breached this level.

“Based on the MVRV Bands, if Bitcoin continues trading above $65,125, the next local BTC top before a short term correction might be around $77,593!” the analyst notes.

At the current crypto’s price, a potential rally to a new all-time high at $77,593 would indicate an increase of more than 11% for the asset. It now remains to be seen how the asset’s price will unfold from here and whether it will be able to sustain above the +0.5 SD MVRV level.

BTC Price

After an initial bullish momentum, Bitcoin’s price action seems to have slowed down with the asset undergoing a sideways movement at the $69,700 level.