比特币 MVRV 定价带模型暗示该资产的下一个峰值可能是 77,600 美元

基于链上指标的比特币定价模型的数据表明，77,600 美元可能是该资产达到下一个峰值的水平。

On-chain data from a Bitcoin pricing bands model suggests that $77,600 could be the next peak for the cryptocurrency.

比特币定价带模型的链上数据表明，77,600 美元可能是该加密货币的下一个峰值。

Bitcoin MVRV Bands May Hint At Next Top For BTC

比特币 MVRV 区间可能暗示 BTC 的下一个顶部

In a new X post, an analyst named Ali covered what the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Pricing Bands model might indicate for the next move in the crypto’s price.

在一篇新的 X 帖子中，一位名叫 Ali 的分析师介绍了市场价值与实现价值 (MVRV) 定价区间模型可能表明加密货币价格的下一步走势。

The MVRV ratio is a popular on-chain indicator that compares the Bitcoin market cap and realized cap. The former is simply the total valuation of the asset at the current spot price, whereas the latter is a model that calculates the asset’s cap by assuming that the “true” value of any coin in circulation is the price at which it was last moved on the blockchain.

MVRV 比率是一种流行的链上指标，用于比较比特币市值和已实现市值。前者只是当前现货价格下资产的总估值，而后者是一个模型，通过假设流通中任何代币的“真实”价值是其最后移动的价格来计算资产的上限。区块链。

The last transfer of any coin on the network was likely the last time it changed hands, and hence, the price at that time would be its current cost basis. As such, the realized cap keeps track of the sum of the cost basis of every holder in the market.

网络上任何代币的最后一次转移很可能是最后一次转手，因此，当时的价格将是其当前的成本基础。因此，已实现的上限跟踪市场上每个持有者的成本基础总和。

Therefore, the MVRV ratio tells us how the value that investors currently hold (the market cap) compares against the value they put in (the realized cap).

因此，MVRV 比率告诉我们投资者当前持有的价值（市值）与他们投入的价值（已实现的上限）相比如何。

Using this indicator, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has created a pricing bands model. Here is a chart showing what these pricing bands look like.

利用该指标，链上分析公司 Glassnode 创建了一个定价区间模型。下面的图表显示了这些定价范围的样子。

The pricing bands in this model represent levels corresponding to a particular deviation from the mean for the MVRV ratio. As per the chart, the crypto’s current price level is denoting a +0.5 standard deviation (SD) from the mean for the indicator.

该模型中的定价区间代表与 MVRV 比率平均值的特定偏差相对应的水平。根据图表，加密货币的当前价格水平与指标平均值有 +0.5 标准差 (SD)。

Specifically, the price level around $65,100 is where the MVRV ratio would be at +0.5 SD above its mean. The next major pricing band in this model is +1 SD, which currently corresponds to around $77,600.

具体来说，65,100 美元左右的价格水平是 MVRV 比率比其平均值高+0.5 SD 的地方。该模型的下一个主要定价区间是+1 SD，目前相当于 77,600 美元左右。

Historically, this level has been where at least local tops have been likely to form for BTC. As the chart shows, the rally top back in March also took place when the coin breached this level.

从历史上看，这个水平至少是比特币可能形成局部顶部的地方。如图表所示，三月份的反弹顶部也是在代币突破该水平时发生的。

“Based on the MVRV Bands, if Bitcoin continues trading above $65,125, the next local BTC top before a short term correction might be around $77,593!” the analyst notes.

“根据 MVRV 频带，如果比特币继续交易在 65,125 美元以上，则短期调整前的下一个本地比特币顶部可能在 77,593 美元左右！”分析师指出。

At the current crypto’s price, a potential rally to a new all-time high at $77,593 would indicate an increase of more than 11% for the asset. It now remains to be seen how the asset’s price will unfold from here and whether it will be able to sustain above the +0.5 SD MVRV level.

以目前的加密货币价格来看，如果该资产有可能反弹至 77,593 美元的历史新高，则意味着该资产的涨幅将超过 11%。现在，该资产的价格将如何展开以及是否能够维持在 +0.5 SD MVRV 水平之上，还有待观察。

BTC Price

比特币价格

After an initial bullish momentum, Bitcoin’s price action seems to have slowed down with the asset undergoing a sideways movement at the $69,700 level.

在最初的看涨势头之后，比特币的价格走势似乎已经放缓，该资产在 69,700 美元的水平上进行横盘整理。