Bitcoin: an inflow of $420 billion in 2026?

According to Bitwise, the trajectory is underway. The crypto index manager anticipates an unprecedented wave of investments: up to $420 billion by 2026.

Cryptocurrency behemoth Bitcoin (BTC) might witness a whopping $420 billion inflow by 2026, according to a report by crypto index manager Bitwise.

The report, titled "Billionaire Band Together To Pour $420 Billion In Bitcoin By 2026 As Global Economy Reboots," predicts that high net worth individuals, states, and asset managers could pour up to $420 billion into Bitcoin by 2026.

The projections by Bitwise come as Bitcoin is rapidly gaining popularity among major investors, who are increasingly seeking to diversify their portfolios and hedge against inflation.

"Major investors are pivoting to Bitcoin in a big way, and we project that, in 2025 and 2026, the outflows from equities and bonds will largely flow into Bitcoin, in addition to smaller contributions from other sources such as property and commodities," the report said.

The report predicts that, in a conservative scenario, about $150 billion could flow into Bitcoin by 2026. In this scenario, states would allocate 1% of their gold reserves to Bitcoin, some American companies would hold a 10% reserve in Bitcoin, and asset management platforms would contribute 0.1% of their assets under management to Bitcoin.

However, in a central scenario, which Bitwise favors, predicts that investments in Bitcoin could reach $420 billion by 2026.

In this scenario, states would reallocate 5% of their gold reserves to Bitcoin, companies would double their exposure to Bitcoin, and asset management platforms would commit 0.5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin.

This level of investment would absorb about 7.7% of Bitcoin’s total supply, signaling a true strategic realignment by major global economic entities.

"This scenario would also factor in a modest level of outflows from private investors, which are not included in the main analysis. It is important to note that, at this stage, we are not attempting to quantify the private investor outflows," the report noted.

Furthermore, the report predicts that, in an optimistic scenario, investments in Bitcoin could hit over $600 billion by 2026.

This scenario would see states allocating up to 10% of their reserves to Bitcoin, sovereign wealth funds fully positioning themselves in Bitcoin, and companies quadrupling their holdings in Bitcoin.

This level of investment would exhaust nearly 15% of Bitcoin’s total supply, effectively rendering it the reserve asset of a post-dollar world.

The report also highlights the role of Bitcoin ETFs in driving this investment wave.

In 2024 alone, these products attracted $36.2 billion in a single year, showcasing the strong demand for liquid and regulated Bitcoin exposure.

These ETFs have also achieved remarkable speed in accumulating assets under management. In one year, they reached $125 billion, which is 20 times faster than gold-backed ETFs at their launch.

For bitcoin advocates, it’s confirmation: the leading crypto is conquering its status as the safe haven asset of the 21st century.

Three scenarios are emerging on the horizon:

* **Cautious scenario: $150 billion at stake**

In its most moderate scenario, Bitwise imagines partial adoption. States would allocate only 1% of their gold reserves to bitcoin. Some American companies would hold a reserve of 10%, and asset management platforms would not go beyond 0.1%. Result: $150 billion inflows, a contained but real confidence signal.

* **Central scenario: $420 billion inflows**

This is the scenario favored by Bitwise. Here, states reallocate 5% of their gold, companies double their exposure, and asset managers commit 0.5% of their portfolios. This movement would absorb 7.7% of bitcoin’s total supply. This would no longer be a speculative bet, but a true strategic realignment by major global economic entities.

* **Optimistic scenario: towards $600 billion**

The most ambitious projection calls for massive adoption. States would allocate up to 10% of their reserves, sovereign wealth funds would fully position themselves, and companies would quadruple their holdings. Result: more than $600 billion inflows and 15% of the BTC supply absorbed. In this scenario, bitcoin would become the reserve asset of a post-dollar world.

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This dynamic is driven by bitcoin’s scarcity—with over 94% of the supply already mined, each BTC gains in scarcity—and the legitimacy of ETFs.

The convergence between bitcoin and gold in terms of the Sharpe ratio also fuels this changing perspective. Even at Fidelity, the narrative is evolving: according to Jurrien Timmer, a BTC above $