比特币：2026年的4200亿美元流入？

根据Bitwise，该轨迹正在进行中。加密指数经理预计将有前所未有的投资浪潮：到2026年最高4200亿美元。

Cryptocurrency behemoth Bitcoin (BTC) might witness a whopping $420 billion inflow by 2026, according to a report by crypto index manager Bitwise.

根据Crypto Index Manager Bitwise的一份报告，到2026年，加密货币庞然大物比特币（BTC）可能会目睹4200亿美元的流入。

The report, titled "Billionaire Band Together To Pour $420 Billion In Bitcoin By 2026 As Global Economy Reboots," predicts that high net worth individuals, states, and asset managers could pour up to $420 billion into Bitcoin by 2026.

该报告的标题为“亿万富翁乐队在一起，将到2026年重新启动到2026年，将4200亿美元的比特币投入到比特币，并预测，到2026年，高净值个人，州和资产经理可以将高达4200亿美元的比特币倒入比特币中。

The projections by Bitwise come as Bitcoin is rapidly gaining popularity among major investors, who are increasingly seeking to diversify their portfolios and hedge against inflation.

由于比特币在主要投资者中迅速越来越受欢迎，他们越来越多地寻求多样化其投资组合和对冲通货膨胀。

"Major investors are pivoting to Bitcoin in a big way, and we project that, in 2025 and 2026, the outflows from equities and bonds will largely flow into Bitcoin, in addition to smaller contributions from other sources such as property and commodities," the report said.

该报告说：“主要投资者正在大力向比特币旋转，我们预计，除了财产和商品等其他来源的较小贡献之外，在2025年和2026年，股票和债券的流出将主要流向比特币。”

The report predicts that, in a conservative scenario, about $150 billion could flow into Bitcoin by 2026. In this scenario, states would allocate 1% of their gold reserves to Bitcoin, some American companies would hold a 10% reserve in Bitcoin, and asset management platforms would contribute 0.1% of their assets under management to Bitcoin.

该报告预测，在保守的情况下，到2026年可能会流向比特币。在这种情况下，各州将其1％的黄金储量分配给比特币，一些美国公司将在比特币中持有10％的储备金，资产管理平台将为BitCoin贡献0.1％的资产占其资产的0.1％。

However, in a central scenario, which Bitwise favors, predicts that investments in Bitcoin could reach $420 billion by 2026.

但是，在一个偏爱的中心情况下，预测比特币的投资到2026年可能达到4200亿美元。

In this scenario, states would reallocate 5% of their gold reserves to Bitcoin, companies would double their exposure to Bitcoin, and asset management platforms would commit 0.5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin.

在这种情况下，各州将将其黄金储量的5％重新分配给比特币，公司将增加对比特币的曝光，资产管理平台将其投资组合的0.5％投资到比特币。

This level of investment would absorb about 7.7% of Bitcoin’s total supply, signaling a true strategic realignment by major global economic entities.

这种投资水平将吸收比特币总供应量的7.7％，这表明了全球主要经济实体的真正战略重新调整。

"This scenario would also factor in a modest level of outflows from private investors, which are not included in the main analysis. It is important to note that, at this stage, we are not attempting to quantify the private investor outflows," the report noted.

报告指出：“这种情况也将考虑私人投资者的流出水平，这些情况不包括在主要分析中。重要的是要注意，在此阶段，我们并没有试图量化私人投资者的流出。”

Furthermore, the report predicts that, in an optimistic scenario, investments in Bitcoin could hit over $600 billion by 2026.

此外，该报告预测，在乐观的情况下，对比特币的投资可能到2026年达到6000亿美元。

This scenario would see states allocating up to 10% of their reserves to Bitcoin, sovereign wealth funds fully positioning themselves in Bitcoin, and companies quadrupling their holdings in Bitcoin.

这种情况将使各州将多达10％的储量分配给比特币，主权财富基金将自己完全定位在比特币中，而公司将其在比特币中持有的持股量增加了四倍。

This level of investment would exhaust nearly 15% of Bitcoin’s total supply, effectively rendering it the reserve asset of a post-dollar world.

这一水平的投资将耗尽比特币总供应量的近15％，从而有效地使其成为后财政部的储备资产。

The report also highlights the role of Bitcoin ETFs in driving this investment wave.

该报告还强调了比特币ETF在推动这一投资浪潮中的作用。

In 2024 alone, these products attracted $36.2 billion in a single year, showcasing the strong demand for liquid and regulated Bitcoin exposure.

仅在2024年，这些产品在一年中就会吸引362亿美元，从而展示了对液体和受管制比特币的强烈需求。

These ETFs have also achieved remarkable speed in accumulating assets under management. In one year, they reached $125 billion, which is 20 times faster than gold-backed ETFs at their launch.

这些ETF在积累管理的资产方面也取得了显着的速度。在一年中，他们达到了1,250亿美元，其发射时的速度比金牌支持的ETF快20倍。

For bitcoin advocates, it’s confirmation: the leading crypto is conquering its status as the safe haven asset of the 21st century.

对于比特币拥护者来说，这是确认的：领先的加密货币正在征服其作为21世纪的避风港资产的地位。

Three scenarios are emerging on the horizon:

三种情况正在浮出水面：

* **Cautious scenario: $150 billion at stake**

***谨慎的方案：危险的1500亿美元**

In its most moderate scenario, Bitwise imagines partial adoption. States would allocate only 1% of their gold reserves to bitcoin. Some American companies would hold a reserve of 10%, and asset management platforms would not go beyond 0.1%. Result: $150 billion inflows, a contained but real confidence signal.

在最温和的情况下，Bitwise想象了部分采用。各州只能将其黄金储量的1％分配给比特币。一些美国公司将持有10％的储备，资产管理平台不会超过0.1％。结果：1500亿美元的流入，包含但真正的置信信号。

* **Central scenario: $420 billion inflows**

***中心方案：4200亿美元流入**

This is the scenario favored by Bitwise. Here, states reallocate 5% of their gold, companies double their exposure, and asset managers commit 0.5% of their portfolios. This movement would absorb 7.7% of bitcoin’s total supply. This would no longer be a speculative bet, but a true strategic realignment by major global economic entities.

这是Bitwise偏爱的方案。在这里，各州重新分配了其黄金的5％，公司的曝光率加倍，资产经理承诺投资组合的0.5％。该运动将吸收比特币总供应量的7.7％。这不再是投机性的赌注，而是全球主要经济实体的真正战略重新调整。

* **Optimistic scenario: towards $600 billion**

***乐观的场景：迈向6000亿美元**

The most ambitious projection calls for massive adoption. States would allocate up to 10% of their reserves, sovereign wealth funds would fully position themselves, and companies would quadruple their holdings. Result: more than $600 billion inflows and 15% of the BTC supply absorbed. In this scenario, bitcoin would become the reserve asset of a post-dollar world.

最雄心勃勃的预测要求大量采用。各州将最多分配其储备金的10％，主权财富基金将完全定位自己，公司将使他们的股份四倍。结果：超过6000亿美元的流入和15％的BTC供应吸收。在这种情况下，比特币将成为后美元世界的储备资产。

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This dynamic is driven by bitcoin’s scarcity—with over 94% of the supply already mined, each BTC gains in scarcity—and the legitimacy of ETFs.

这种动态是由比特币的稀缺性驱动的 - 超过94％的供应已经开采了，每个BTC稀缺的收益都在稀缺中，以及ETF的合法性。

The convergence between bitcoin and gold in terms of the Sharpe ratio also fuels this changing perspective. Even at Fidelity, the narrative is evolving: according to Jurrien Timmer, a BTC above $

比特币与黄金之间的融合也以夏普比的比率助长了这种不断变化的观点。即使在富达时，叙述也在不断发展：根据$ $ $ $的BTC的Jurrien Timmer的说法