Bitcoin (BTC) Struggles to Sustain Upward Momentum in May Despite Briefly Nearing the $98,000 Mark Earlier in the Month

The world's leading cryptocurrency is now up just 1.2% year-to-date, hovering near the $94,000–$95,000 zone as of May 6

The cryptocurrency markets have seen mixed trends in May, with Bitcoin struggling to sustain upward momentum despite briefly nearing the $98,000 mark earlier in May. The world’s leading cryptocurrency is now up just 1.2% year-to-date, trading near the $94,000-$95,000 zone. Meanwhile, Sui (SUI) has seen sharper underperformance with a nearly 20% YTD decline, currently trading near $1.07 after hitting a high of $2.19 earlier this year.

At first glance, the trend seems clear: Bitcoin is dominant, while altcoins are lagging. But beneath the surface, there are early signs that this narrative could be shifting.

Recent indicators hint at weakening BTC support from U.S.-based whales, highlighted by a negative Coinbase Premium and declining addresses holding over 1,000 BTC. Simultaneously, Glassnode and CryptoQuant data show sluggish Bitcoin network activity despite elevated prices, suggesting a disconnection between valuation and usage.

In contrast, SUI has flashed a series of early bullish signals, including signs of accumulation, rebounding network participation, and increasing social interest. While it still trades well below its all-time highs, technical and on-chain cues imply that a potential reversal is brewing.

With macro volatility lingering amid global rate-cut expectations and renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, the question arises: Could an undervalued altcoin like SUI outpace Bitcoin in the coming months?

SUI Sees Strong On-Chain Revival, Bullish Technicals

Sui's on-chain fundamentals have improved sharply over the past month, with its DeFi total value locked (TVL) surging over 41% to nearly $1.75 billion. The move pushes SUI into the top 10 blockchains by TVL, ahead of Cardano, Avalanche, and Polygon.

Stablecoin inflows have also jumped, with the circulating stablecoin market cap nearing the $900 million mark, reflecting growing user interaction and liquidity depth across its ecosystem. Decentralized exchange volume crossed $2.9 billion in seven days, led by protocols like Cetus, Momentum, and Bluefin.

Simultaneously, the eight-hour funding rate has flipped positive and continues to rise. This shift shows that traders are paying a premium on perpetual contracts, expecting price upside. Rising DeFi traction, capital inflows, and bullish funding data combine to suggest increasing confidence in SUI's recovery potential.

On the technical front, the SUI/USD pair has formed a bullish technical pattern called the falling wedge, which traders typically associate with bullish reversals. Two downward-sloping, converging trendlines form the pattern, reflecting diminishing selling pressure as volatility tightens.

While the structure suggests a potential upside breakout, price has not yet closed decisively above the upper resistance line. The pattern's projected target sits near the $6.90 level, calculated by measuring the height of the wedge from its widest point and projecting it above the apex. However, this remains theoretical until SUI breaks and holds above the wedge's upper boundary with conviction.

Currently, the token is hovering around $3.25 after failing to sustain a push above the descending resistance. This rejection signals caution in the near term. Bulls need a clean break above the upper trendline with strong candle structure to confirm the breakout. Until that happens, the pattern remains unconfirmed, and downside retests within the wedge remain possible.

The wedge structure deserves close monitoring given the positive funding rate and improving on-chain activity. But as of now, the technical breakout is still in waiting—it has not been realized yet.

Bitcoin Faces Whale Sell Pressure Despite Elevated Price Levels

Bitcoin's price resilience at around $94,000 is masking clear signs of whale distribution. The latest CryptoQuant data reveals a negative Coinbase Premium, indicating that BTC is trading at a discount on U.S.-based Coinbase compared to Binance.

Historically, this premium reflects strong institutional buying activity in the U.S. When it flips negative, it usually signals that whales are offloading positions. This behavior aligns with on-chain data from Glassnode, which shows a stagnation in the number of addresses holding over 1,000 BTC.

After peaking in early 2021, this cohort has declined and remains suppressed even as Bitcoin approaches its all-time highs again. Whales were accumulating aggressively during the 2019-2021 cycle, helping fuel a broad rally. In contrast, the current structure shows price moving higher without a corresponding increase in large wallet holdings—an unusual and potentially bearish divergence.

Such a trend indicates that large holders are using current high prices as exit zones rather than accumulation levels. This divergence between rising prices and falling whale presence highlights a weakening conviction among long-term investors.

CryptoQuant's network activity data supports this cautious view. Active addresses and transaction counts