Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction and Analysis for July 12

With the recent release of June US CPI data, the crypto market's anticipations of a bullish trend improved for a moment. However, Bitcoin's recovery rate is slower than anticipated as supply pressure grows.

Recent June US CPI data had crypto traders anticipating a bullish trend. However, Bitcoin’s recovery is slower than expected due to increasing supply pressure.

The main supply force originates from the German Government depleting their Bitcoin reserves, which is delaying the $60K breakout. Despite broader market expectations of a recovery next week, the BTC price remains below $60,000.

While Bitcoin and altcoins await a demand surge, here’s why you should continue HODL-ing.

Bitcoin Price Performance

Displaying a downtrend, the BTC price is trading below the 200D EMA and facing higher price rejection. Despite a recent jump to the $59,500 level, Bitcoin failed to cross the short-term resistance trendline.

If a daily closing fails above the 200D EMA, the downtrend could continue testing the support trendline. Currently, the BTC price trades at $57,329, with an intraday Doji visible during the Asian market hours.

With the sideways trend, Bitcoin is approaching the apex of a triangle formed by the short-term trendline and support trendline. The downtick in the 50D EMA is approaching a death cross with the 200D EMA.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Signal Potential Bull Run

On July 11, 2024, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $79 million, marking the fifth consecutive day of positive inflows, though the volume has dropped below the $100 million mark. Among the major players, BlackRock’s IBIT ETF took the lead with a massive inflow of $72.1 million, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC ETF with an inflow of $32.7 million.

However, Grayscale’s GBTC ETF saw a significant outflow of $37.7 million, which is 4.6 times the outflow recorded the previous day. This data showcases mixed sentiments in the market, with some investors pulling back while others continue to pour funds into Bitcoin ETFs.

German Sell-Off To End in 2 Days?

In an unexpected move, the German government has drastically reduced its Bitcoin reserves, now holding only 9,094 BTC worth about $521 million. This follows the sale of 6,458 BTC, valued at roughly $379 million, over the last 24 hours.

The significant sell-off is linked to the authorities’ seizure of $2.1 billion (50,000 BTC) from the operators of Movie2k, a central pirated movie platform known for distributing over 880,000 copies of pirated films since its inception in 2008.

If this pace of selling continues, it is projected that the German government may exhaust its Bitcoin holdings within the next two days. Since June 19, 2024, German authorities’ Bitcoin holdings have decreased from 49.9K BTC to 9.1K BTC by July 11, 2024, following a consistent sell-off that began on July 7, 2024.

Will The Bitcoin Price Rise Above $60,000?

As the chances of a rate cut in September increase and the German supply pressure is expected to ease in two days, the crypto bull run is ready to begin. With the secondary trendline breakout being the price action confirmation, the sideline traders are being patient.

However, the sideways movement under 200D EMA brings an opportunity to hoard Bitcoin before the breakout rally begins. The uptrend can reach the overhead trendline near the $71K level.