7月12日比特币（BTC）价格预测与分析

随着近期美国6月CPI数据的发布，加密市场看涨趋势的预期暂时有所改善。然而，随着供应压力的增大，比特币的复苏速度比预期要慢。

Recent June US CPI data had crypto traders anticipating a bullish trend. However, Bitcoin’s recovery is slower than expected due to increasing supply pressure.

最近的 6 月美国消费者物价指数 (CPI) 数据让加密货币交易者预计看涨趋势。然而，由于供应压力加大，比特币的复苏速度慢于预期。

The main supply force originates from the German Government depleting their Bitcoin reserves, which is delaying the $60K breakout. Despite broader market expectations of a recovery next week, the BTC price remains below $60,000.

主要供应力量来自于德国政府耗尽比特币储备，这推迟了 6 万美元的突破。尽管市场普遍预期下周将出现复苏，但 BTC 价格仍低于 60,000 美元。

While Bitcoin and altcoins await a demand surge, here’s why you should continue HODL-ing.

当比特币和山寨币等待需求激增时，这就是您应该继续持有的原因。

Bitcoin Price Performance

比特币价格表现

Displaying a downtrend, the BTC price is trading below the 200D EMA and facing higher price rejection. Despite a recent jump to the $59,500 level, Bitcoin failed to cross the short-term resistance trendline.

BTC 价格呈现下降趋势，目前交易价格低于 200 天均线，并面临更高的价格拒绝。尽管比特币最近跃升至 59,500 美元的水平，但未能突破短期阻力趋势线。

If a daily closing fails above the 200D EMA, the downtrend could continue testing the support trendline. Currently, the BTC price trades at $57,329, with an intraday Doji visible during the Asian market hours.

如果每日收盘未能突破 200 日均线，下降趋势可能会继续测试支撑趋势线。目前，BTC 价格交易价格为 57,329 美元，在亚洲市场时段可以看到日内十字星。

With the sideways trend, Bitcoin is approaching the apex of a triangle formed by the short-term trendline and support trendline. The downtick in the 50D EMA is approaching a death cross with the 200D EMA.

随着横盘趋势，比特币正在接近短期趋势线和支撑趋势线形成的三角形的顶点。 50 日均线的下行趋势正接近与 200 日均线的死亡交叉。

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Signal Potential Bull Run

比特币 ETF 流入预示着潜在的牛市

On July 11, 2024, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $79 million, marking the fifth consecutive day of positive inflows, though the volume has dropped below the $100 million mark. Among the major players, BlackRock’s IBIT ETF took the lead with a massive inflow of $72.1 million, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC ETF with an inflow of $32.7 million.

2024 年 7 月 11 日，比特币 ETF 净流入 7900 万美元，连续第五天出现正流入，但交易量已跌破 1 亿美元大关。在主要参与者中，贝莱德的 IBIT ETF 以 7210 万美元的巨额流入领先，其次是富达的 FBTC ETF，流入 3270 万美元。

However, Grayscale’s GBTC ETF saw a significant outflow of $37.7 million, which is 4.6 times the outflow recorded the previous day. This data showcases mixed sentiments in the market, with some investors pulling back while others continue to pour funds into Bitcoin ETFs.

然而，Grayscale 的 GBTC ETF 出现了 3770 万美元的大幅流出，是前一日流出量的 4.6 倍。该数据显示市场情绪复杂，一些投资者撤资，而另一些投资者则继续向比特币 ETF 注入资金。

German Sell-Off To End in 2 Days?

德国抛售将在两天内结束？

In an unexpected move, the German government has drastically reduced its Bitcoin reserves, now holding only 9,094 BTC worth about $521 million. This follows the sale of 6,458 BTC, valued at roughly $379 million, over the last 24 hours.

德国政府出人意料地大幅减少了比特币储备，目前仅持有 9,094 枚比特币，价值约 5.21 亿美元。此前 24 小时内售出 6,458 枚 BTC，价值约 3.79 亿美元。

The significant sell-off is linked to the authorities’ seizure of $2.1 billion (50,000 BTC) from the operators of Movie2k, a central pirated movie platform known for distributing over 880,000 copies of pirated films since its inception in 2008.

此次大规模抛售与当局从 Movie2k 运营商处扣押 21 亿美元（50,000 BTC）有关。Movie2k 是一个中央盗版电影平台，自 2008 年成立以来以分发超过 880,000 份盗版电影而闻名。

If this pace of selling continues, it is projected that the German government may exhaust its Bitcoin holdings within the next two days. Since June 19, 2024, German authorities’ Bitcoin holdings have decreased from 49.9K BTC to 9.1K BTC by July 11, 2024, following a consistent sell-off that began on July 7, 2024.

如果这种抛售速度继续下去，预计德国政府可能会在未来两天内耗尽其持有的比特币。自 2024 年 6 月 19 日以来，德国当局持有的比特币在 2024 年 7 月 7 日开始持续抛售后，已从 4.99 万个 BTC 减少到 2024 年 7 月 11 日的 9.1 万个 BTC。

Will The Bitcoin Price Rise Above $60,000?

比特币价格会升至60,000美元以上吗？

As the chances of a rate cut in September increase and the German supply pressure is expected to ease in two days, the crypto bull run is ready to begin. With the secondary trendline breakout being the price action confirmation, the sideline traders are being patient.

随着 9 月份降息的可能性增加，并且德国供应压力预计将在两天内缓解，加密货币牛市已经准备好开始。由于第二次趋势线突破是价格走势的确认，场外交易者正在保持耐心。

However, the sideways movement under 200D EMA brings an opportunity to hoard Bitcoin before the breakout rally begins. The uptrend can reach the overhead trendline near the $71K level.

然而，200 天均线下方的横向走势带来了在突破反弹开始之前囤积比特币的机会。上升趋势可能会达到 71,000 美元附近的上方趋势线。