Bitcoin (BTC) Poised to Target $125,000–$140,000 Range Before the End of the Year

Bitcoin is yet to break above the anticipated $100,000 milestone as it traded on a correction path for the majority of the just concluded week.

Bitcoin is yet to cross the anticipated $100,000 milestone as it traded on a correction path for most of last week. However, current market trends indicate that the cryptocurrency will break through the $100,000 psychological threshold soon. Specifically, past trends, combined with current market indicators, suggest that Bitcoin could be poised for a spectacular rally to end the year.

Historical Post-Election December Rallies: A Bullish Pattern

Bitcoin has a history of rallying in the month of December following US presidential elections (in November). Notably, the cryptocurrency posted gains of 30.8% and 46.92% after the 2016 and 2020 elections, respectively. Interestingly, one could argue that the ecosystem surrounding the Bitcoin price is in a much better place than those two instances.

There are now Spot Bitcoin ETFs that expose the cryptocurrency to investments from institutional investors, something that was lacking in the last two US presidential elections. These inflows from institutional investors have been effective in buying up more Bitcoins, especially during periods of profit-taking by both short-term and long-term holders.

Bitcoin price already enjoyed a great month in November, closing the month 38% up from where it started. As it stands, the focus is on December to see how well the Bitcoin price performs during the month.

The market sentiment, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index, currently shows extreme greed. According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez on social media platform X, this level of optimism among investors is reminiscent of the dramatic Bitcoin price rally during its last bull run, where it surged from $15,000 to $57,000 in a matter of weeks.

If the historical trend were to continue, a 30% or 46% gain in the Bitcoin price this December would see it reaching $125,000 or $140,000 before the year ends, or perhaps somewhere in between.

On-Chain Data Shows A Massive Bitcoin Supply Crunch

Adding to the bullish case, on-chain data reveals that over 55,000 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $5.34 billion, have been withdrawn from exchanges in the past 72 hours. Such large outflows often indicate a supply crunch as investors move their holdings to private wallets, signaling a long-term bullish outlook among Bitcoin holders.

Currently, the Bitcoin price is trading at $96,454, having traded within a range of $95,833 to $97,201 over the past 24 hours. Given its historical December performance, strong market sentiment, and tightening supply, Bitcoin seems well-positioned to aim for the $125,000–$140,000 range before the end of the year.

However, the first resistance to break would be $100,000. Breaking above this level is likely to spark FOMO among investors. On the other hand, the Bitcoin price has to hold up above $90,000 to keep most bullish theses valid. Fortunately, the average mining cost is $90,524 and the Bitcoin price has never fallen below its mining cost during bull runs.