比特币 (BTC) 有望在年底前达到 125,000 美元至 140,000 美元的目标区间

比特币尚未突破预期的 100,000 美元里程碑，因为它在刚刚结束的一周的大部分时间里都在修正路径上交易。

Bitcoin is yet to cross the anticipated $100,000 milestone as it traded on a correction path for most of last week. However, current market trends indicate that the cryptocurrency will break through the $100,000 psychological threshold soon. Specifically, past trends, combined with current market indicators, suggest that Bitcoin could be poised for a spectacular rally to end the year.

比特币尚未突破预期的 10 万美元里程碑，因为上周大部分时间都在修正路径上交易。然而，目前的市场趋势表明，加密货币将很快突破10万美元的心理门槛。具体来说，过去的趋势与当前的市场指标相结合，表明比特币可能会在年底出现惊人的上涨。

Historical Post-Election December Rallies: A Bullish Pattern

历史性的选举后 12 月集会：看涨模式

Bitcoin has a history of rallying in the month of December following US presidential elections (in November). Notably, the cryptocurrency posted gains of 30.8% and 46.92% after the 2016 and 2020 elections, respectively. Interestingly, one could argue that the ecosystem surrounding the Bitcoin price is in a much better place than those two instances.

比特币在美国总统选举（11 月）后的 12 月有上涨的历史。值得注意的是，加密货币在 2016 年和 2020 年大选后分别上涨了 30.8% 和 46.92%。有趣的是，人们可能会说围绕比特币价格的生态系统比这两个例子要好得多。

There are now Spot Bitcoin ETFs that expose the cryptocurrency to investments from institutional investors, something that was lacking in the last two US presidential elections. These inflows from institutional investors have been effective in buying up more Bitcoins, especially during periods of profit-taking by both short-term and long-term holders.

现在有现货比特币 ETF，将加密货币暴露给机构投资者的投资，这是过去两次美国总统选举所缺乏的。来自机构投资者的资金流入有效地购买了更多比特币，特别是在短期和长期持有者获利回吐期间。

Bitcoin price already enjoyed a great month in November, closing the month 38% up from where it started. As it stands, the focus is on December to see how well the Bitcoin price performs during the month.

比特币价格在 11 月份已经表现出色，当月收盘较年初上涨 38%。就目前情况而言，重点是 12 月，看看比特币价格在该月的表现如何。

The market sentiment, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index, currently shows extreme greed. According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez on social media platform X, this level of optimism among investors is reminiscent of the dramatic Bitcoin price rally during its last bull run, where it surged from $15,000 to $57,000 in a matter of weeks.

根据恐惧与贪婪指数衡量的市场情绪目前显示出极度贪婪。社交媒体平台 X 上的加密货币分析师 Ali Martinez 表示，投资者的这种乐观情绪让人想起上一次牛市期间比特币价格的大幅上涨，在几周内从 15,000 美元飙升至 57,000 美元。

If the historical trend were to continue, a 30% or 46% gain in the Bitcoin price this December would see it reaching $125,000 or $140,000 before the year ends, or perhaps somewhere in between.

如果历史趋势继续下去，今年 12 月比特币价格上涨 30% 或 46%，年底前将达到 125,000 美元或 140,000 美元，或者可能介于两者之间。

On-Chain Data Shows A Massive Bitcoin Supply Crunch

链上数据显示比特币供应严重紧缩

Adding to the bullish case, on-chain data reveals that over 55,000 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $5.34 billion, have been withdrawn from exchanges in the past 72 hours. Such large outflows often indicate a supply crunch as investors move their holdings to private wallets, signaling a long-term bullish outlook among Bitcoin holders.

链上数据显示，过去 72 小时内已有超过 55,000 个比特币从交易所撤出，价值约 53.4 亿美元。如此大规模的资金外流通常表明供应紧缩，因为投资者将其持有的资产转移到私人钱包，这表明比特币持有者的长期看涨前景。

Currently, the Bitcoin price is trading at $96,454, having traded within a range of $95,833 to $97,201 over the past 24 hours. Given its historical December performance, strong market sentiment, and tightening supply, Bitcoin seems well-positioned to aim for the $125,000–$140,000 range before the end of the year.

目前，比特币价格交易价格为 96,454 美元，过去 24 小时内交易区间为 95,833 美元至 97,201 美元。鉴于 12 月份的历史表现、强劲的市场情绪以及供应紧缩，比特币似乎处于有利位置，有望在年底前达到 125,000 美元至 140,000 美元的区间。

However, the first resistance to break would be $100,000. Breaking above this level is likely to spark FOMO among investors. On the other hand, the Bitcoin price has to hold up above $90,000 to keep most bullish theses valid. Fortunately, the average mining cost is $90,524 and the Bitcoin price has never fallen below its mining cost during bull runs.

然而，第一个突破的阻力位是 100,000 美元。突破这一水平可能会引发投资者的 FOMO 情绪。另一方面，比特币价格必须维持在 90,000 美元以上才能保持大多数看涨论点的有效性。幸运的是，平均挖矿成本为 90,524 美元，并且比特币价格在牛市期间从未跌破其挖矿成本。