Bitcoin (BTC) Options Market Indicates a 22% Probability of Prices Falling to $75,000 by March 28

The sharp rise in probability follows a renewed import tariff war between the U.S. and its top trading partners.

Bitcoin (BTC) options traders are pricing in a 22% probability of the cryptocurrency falling to $75,000 by March 28, according to data from Derive.xyz. This marks a significant increase from last week, when the probability was pegged at 10%.

The Derive.xyz platform allows users to trade standardized call and put options on BTC, ETH, SOL and DOT, and to create custom options. Derive’s on-chain options market is used to gauge professional traders’ short-term directional preferences.

The latest data point follows a renewed import tariff war between the U.S. and its top trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and China. The tariffs are expected to contribute to inflation in the global economy, making it harder for central banks like the Fed to cut interest rates.

“The recent tariffs imposed by Trump, including 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada and 10% on Chinese goods, are likely to lead to increased inflation, which could dampen investor sentiment in crypto markets,” Derive said in an email to CoinDesk.

Andre Dragosch, head of Europe at Bitwise, said on X that tariffs are sending shock waves via USD strength and contraction in global money supply.

Bitcoin has already dropped 11% to $93,700 in four days, according to CoinDesk data. ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, fell below $2,200 early Monday, marking its lowest since Aug. 5.

BTC appears set to complete a double top reversal pattern, which could open the doors for a drop to $75,000. Recently, Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer of Maelstrom and former BitMEX CEO, said that BTC will first drop to around $75,000 before chalking out a bigger bull run.

Meanwhile, the broader outlook appears constructive, according to Derive.

“We’re seeing a number of active spot ETF filings for assets like DOGE, SOL, XRP, and LTC from major players like Bitwise and Grayscale. If the SEC approves these, it will signal greater legitimacy for the digital asset industry and trigger more capital inflows, potentially driving prices upward,” Derive told CoinDesk, highlighting the momentum for creating strategic BTC reserves in several U.S. states.

Dragosch expects the Fed to step in eventually, putting a floor under asset prices.

“At some point, Fed will need to reignite QE to curb the Dollar from rising further and to stop a continued tightening in financial conditions & deceleration in global growth,” Bitwise’s Dragosch added.