比特币（BTC）期权市场表明，到3月28日，价格的可能性为22％，至75,000美元

概率的急剧上升是在美国与其顶级贸易伙伴之间的重新进口关税战争之后。

Bitcoin (BTC) options traders are pricing in a 22% probability of the cryptocurrency falling to $75,000 by March 28, according to data from Derive.xyz. This marks a significant increase from last week, when the probability was pegged at 10%.

根据derive.xyz的数据，到3月28日，比特币（BTC）期权交易者的定价可能是22％的加密货币降至75,000美元的概率。这与上周的概率为10％相比，这显着增加。

The Derive.xyz platform allows users to trade standardized call and put options on BTC, ETH, SOL and DOT, and to create custom options. Derive’s on-chain options market is used to gauge professional traders’ short-term directional preferences.

derive.xyz平台允许用户在BTC，ETH，SOL和DOT上交易标准化的呼叫，并将选项放置，并创建自定义选项。 DERIVE的链上选择市场用于评估专业交易员的短期方向偏好。

The latest data point follows a renewed import tariff war between the U.S. and its top trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and China. The tariffs are expected to contribute to inflation in the global economy, making it harder for central banks like the Fed to cut interest rates.

最新的数据点是在美国与其顶级贸易伙伴之间的重新进口关税战争之后，包括加拿大，墨西哥和中国。预计关税将导致全球经济的通货膨胀率，这使得像美联储这样的中央银行降低利率变得更加困难。

“The recent tariffs imposed by Trump, including 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada and 10% on Chinese goods, are likely to lead to increased inflation, which could dampen investor sentiment in crypto markets,” Derive said in an email to CoinDesk.

“特朗普最近对墨西哥和加拿大进口的25％征收的关税和中国商品的10％可能会导致通货膨胀率增加，这可能会削弱加密货币市场的投资者情绪。”

Andre Dragosch, head of Europe at Bitwise, said on X that tariffs are sending shock waves via USD strength and contraction in global money supply.

Bitwise的欧洲负责人安德烈·德拉格斯（Andre Dragosch）在X上表示，关税正在通过全球货币供应中的美元实力和收缩发出冲击波。

Bitcoin has already dropped 11% to $93,700 in four days, according to CoinDesk data. ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, fell below $2,200 early Monday, marking its lowest since Aug. 5.

根据Coindesk的数据，比特币在四天内已经下跌了11％至93,700美元。 ETH是按市场价值计算的第二大加密货币，周一早些时候下跌低于2,200美元，标志着8月5日以来的最低水平。

BTC appears set to complete a double top reversal pattern, which could open the doors for a drop to $75,000. Recently, Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer of Maelstrom and former BitMEX CEO, said that BTC will first drop to around $75,000 before chalking out a bigger bull run.

BTC似乎准备完成双顶逆转模式，该模式可能会以75,000美元的价格打开门。最近，Maelstrom的首席投资官，前Bitmex首席执行官Arthur Hayes表示，BTC将首先跌至75,000美元左右，然后再进行更大的公牛运行。

Meanwhile, the broader outlook appears constructive, according to Derive.

同时，根据派生，更广泛的前景似乎是建设性的。

“We’re seeing a number of active spot ETF filings for assets like DOGE, SOL, XRP, and LTC from major players like Bitwise and Grayscale. If the SEC approves these, it will signal greater legitimacy for the digital asset industry and trigger more capital inflows, potentially driving prices upward,” Derive told CoinDesk, highlighting the momentum for creating strategic BTC reserves in several U.S. states.

“我们从Bitwise和Grayscale等主要参与者中看到了多个Doge，Sol，XRP和LTC等资产的活动ETF文件。如果SEC批准了这些，它将标志着数字资产行业的更大合法性，并引发更多的资本流入，可能会向上推动价格。

Dragosch expects the Fed to step in eventually, putting a floor under asset prices.

Dragosch预计美联储最终将介入，将地板放在资产价格下。

“At some point, Fed will need to reignite QE to curb the Dollar from rising further and to stop a continued tightening in financial conditions & deceleration in global growth,” Bitwise’s Dragosch added.

Bitwise的Dragosch补充说：“在某个时候，美联储需要重新点燃量化宽松，以遏制美元从进一步上升，并阻止全球增长的财务状况和减速的继续收紧。”