Bitcoin (BTC) network economist Timothy Peterson maintains optimistic outlook, suggesting a 75% chance of new highs in the next nine months.

In an X post, Peterson highlighted BTC's current position near the lower bound of its historical range. The analyst emphasized that Bitcoin's current path aligns with the bottom 25% threshold, giving it majority odds for a positive rally.

Bitcoin (BTC) has a 75% chance of hitting new highs in the next nine months, according to network economist Timothy Peterson, who maintains his optimistic outlook for the asset.

In a recent X post, Peterson highlighted BTC's current position near the lower bound of its historical range. The analyst noted that the cryptocurrency's current path aligns with the bottom 25% threshold, indicating majority odds for a positive rally.

"Bitcoin is currently trading at the lower band of its 10-year seasonal range. Over the past 10 years, when Bitcoin has been within the bottom 25% of its seasonal range at this time of year, it has gone up in the next 3-9 months 75% of the time."

Peterson's statements follow an earlier study that found that most of Bitcoin's annual bullish performance occurred in April and October, which have averaged 12.98% and 21.98%, respectively, over the past decade.

(Image Credit: X)

Most of Bitcoin's annual bullish performance occurs in April and October. April has averaged a 12.98% return over the past 10 years, while October has averaged a 21.98% return. At the moment, Bitcoin is at the lower band of its 10-year seasonal range. When Bitcoin has been within the bottom 25% of its seasonal range at this time of year, it has gone up in the next 3-9 months 75% of the time.

Peterson added that Bitcoin has a higher chance of going down when it is in the middle of its seasonal range, and it has a slim chance of going down further when it is in the upper band of its seasonal range.

Bitcoin has a 75% chance of hitting new highs in the next 9 months.

"Bitcoin has a 75% chance of going up further when it is at the lower band of its seasonal range, a 50% chance of going down when it is in the middle of its seasonal range, and a 25% chance of going down further when it is in the upper band of its seasonal range."

In other words, Bitcoin is more likely to continue trending in the same direction when it is at an extreme of its seasonal range. This is because the market tends to overshoot at turning points, creating opportunities for traders who can identify and capitalize on these trends.

Bitcoin is currently at the lower band of its seasonal range, which suggests that there is a higher probability of seeing Bitcoin prices rise in the coming months. However, it is important to note that this is just one factor to consider, and traders should conduct their own technical and fundamental analysis before making any trading decisions.

Bitcoin onchain cost basis zone key investors' levels

In a recent quicktake post on CryptoQuant, anonymous analyst Crazzyblockk said that the realized price for short-term whales is $91,000, whereas most highly active addresses hold a cost basis between $84,000 and $85,000.

Bitcoin short-term whales position. Source: CryptoQuant

A dip below the cost basis could trigger selling, making the $84,000 to $85,000 range a critical liquidity zone.

The analyst added, "If BTC falls below $84k, it could open up selling pressure as short-term whales might get stopped out and highly active addresses will be entering a zone where they are more likely to sell than buy."

However, considering the strong buying pressure evident in derivatives markets, further declines might be limited.

Moreover, an analysis by crypto researcher Ali A covered the Hash Ribon signal, which is a combination of the Hash Rate and the total output of new coins, and found that it flipped 'macro bullish' this week with the first buy signal in eight months.

"Hash Ribon flipped macro bullish this week with the first buy signal in 8 months. It signaled a macro-bullish bias in the last bull market in 2021, and also bottomed at the Covid lows in March 2020. The signal measures the total output of new coins vs. the hash rate."

This post does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.