Bitcoin (BTC) Will Hit $110,000 Before Dropping to $76,500, Predicts BitMEX Co-founder Arthur Hayes

As the Federal Reserve shifts to quantitative easing, BitMEX's co-founder Arthur Hayes appears to be confident to bet on Bitcoin hitting $110,000 before dipping to $76,500.

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, is known for his bold predictions in the cryptocurrency market. In a recent X post, Hayes shared his optimistic outlook on Bitcoin's price movements, which he believes will reach $110,000 before pulling back to $76,500.

This prediction is linked to his observations of the Federal Reserve's actions and the broader economic landscape. According to Hayes, the Fed appears to be shifting from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE) for treasuries.

Furthermore, he noted that tariffs no longer seem to matter, and the focus has shifted to inflation, which is being viewed as "transitory."

"The Fed is shifting out of QT to QE for Treasuries. They can’t get inflation down, so they're pivoting. Tariffs no longer matter; inflation is transitory, and they're pivoting to QE. I'm buying the apex of this bull market in March 2024 around $110,000, and we'll see lower lows in December 2024 around $76,500," stated Hayes.

However, it remains to be seen whether this another prediction will play out as expected.

This analysis comes as prediction markets are placing an overwhelming probability on the Federal Reserve ending its QT program by May. According to data from Polymarket, there's a 100% likelihood that the Fed will cease QT by April 30.

The end of QT could be a significant catalyst for risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies, as it's expected to drive up asset prices due to the liquidity injected into the market by the central bank.

In September 2024, Hayes previously reversed a bullish view on Bitcoin, which he had shared in August, saying he had been wrong about the apex of the market.

In a commentary for news outlets, he stated that he reserves the "right to change my mind as the situation evolves."

In a Feb. 25 X post, Hayes warned that Bitcoin's price could fall as low as $70,000 if large hedge funds unwind their positions in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

However, less than a month later, as market dynamics evolved, Hayes adjusted his analysis, declaring in a March 20 X post that Bitcoin's price had likely reached its bottom at $77,000.