Bitcoin (BTC) Halving Returns Do Not Match Expectations, But There's a Counterargument

Bitcoin [BTC] faced rejection at $66.5k after a strong rally toward the end of September. October is a month that generally sees positive returns for the coin

Bitcoin [BTC] faced a strong rejection at $66.5k toward the end of September as it failed to hold on to the gains. While October usually brings positive returns for the coin, this time has been different.

At the time of writing, BTC was down 4% from the month’s open. The spent output age bands metric showed that many longer-term holders opted to sell Bitcoin on 8 October.

The 12-month to 18-month band showed the selling activity, which was last seen in January 2021.

Bitcoin halving returns not matching expectations As per a post on X by CryptoQuant Founder and CEO Ki Young Ju, we are on course to have the longest sideways price action in a halving year.

The 2020 cycle saw Bitcoin begin its rally mid-way through October. While the performance of BTC in the first quarter far surpassed the one seen in 2020, the two years had wildly different starts.

In 2024, the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were approved in the U.S., leading to a massive wave of demand.

On the other hand, in 2020, the onset of the Coronavirus pandemic was looming and every analyst and investor was on the verge of panic due to the threat of economic damage.

However, a counterargument is that the longer the consolidation phase, the stronger the breakout. Could this happen to Bitcoin, or is the king coin more mature and less amenable to the crazy gains it saw in previous cycles? Only time will tell.

Bitcoin October sell-off might be a ‘buy the dip’ scenario As per a post on X by crypto analyst nestay, the first two weeks of October have historically seen volatility and a seeming downturn, before recovery.

The 2021, 2023, and 2024 price actions were compared. In each of these cases, the market structure turned bearish before a bullish trend was established in the second half of the month.

This might encourage the idea of buying the dip. Now, whether Bitcoin can trend as strongly as it did in the previous cycle is unknown, but long-term holders would likely prefer to HODL than to sell in the face of disappointing Bitcoin performances.