比特币（BTC）减半回报与预期不符，但有反驳

比特币 [BTC] 在 9 月底强劲反弹后，在 6.65 万美元的价格上遭到拒绝。十月通常是代币获得正回报的一个月

Bitcoin [BTC] faced a strong rejection at $66.5k toward the end of September as it failed to hold on to the gains. While October usually brings positive returns for the coin, this time has been different.

比特币 [BTC] 在 9 月底遭遇了 6.65 万美元的强烈拒绝，因为它未能守住涨幅。虽然十月通常会为代币带来正回报，但这次有所不同。

At the time of writing, BTC was down 4% from the month’s open. The spent output age bands metric showed that many longer-term holders opted to sell Bitcoin on 8 October.

截至撰写本文时，BTC 较当月开盘价下跌 4%。支出年龄范围指标显示，许多长期持有者选择在 10 月 8 日出售比特币。

The 12-month to 18-month band showed the selling activity, which was last seen in January 2021.

12 个月至 18 个月区间显示抛售活动，最后一次出现是在 2021 年 1 月。

Bitcoin halving returns not matching expectations As per a post on X by CryptoQuant Founder and CEO Ki Young Ju, we are on course to have the longest sideways price action in a halving year.

比特币减半回报不符合预期 根据 CryptoQuant 创始人兼首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 在 X 上发表的一篇文章，我们将迎来减半年中最长的横向价格走势。

The 2020 cycle saw Bitcoin begin its rally mid-way through October. While the performance of BTC in the first quarter far surpassed the one seen in 2020, the two years had wildly different starts.

2020 年周期中，比特币在 10 月中旬开始上涨。尽管 BTC 第一季度的表现远远超过 2020 年，但这两年的开局却截然不同。

In 2024, the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were approved in the U.S., leading to a massive wave of demand.

2024年，现货ETF在美国获得批准，引发了巨大的需求浪潮。

On the other hand, in 2020, the onset of the Coronavirus pandemic was looming and every analyst and investor was on the verge of panic due to the threat of economic damage.

另一方面，2020年，冠状病毒大流行的爆发迫在眉睫，每个分析师和投资者都因经济损失的威胁而处于恐慌的边缘。

However, a counterargument is that the longer the consolidation phase, the stronger the breakout. Could this happen to Bitcoin, or is the king coin more mature and less amenable to the crazy gains it saw in previous cycles? Only time will tell.

然而，一个反驳的观点是，盘整阶段越长，突破就越强。这种情况会发生在比特币身上吗？还是这个王者币更加成熟，不太容易承受之前周期中的疯狂上涨？只有时间才能证明一切。

Bitcoin October sell-off might be a ‘buy the dip’ scenario As per a post on X by crypto analyst nestay, the first two weeks of October have historically seen volatility and a seeming downturn, before recovery.

比特币 10 月份的抛售可能是一种“逢低买入”的情况根据加密货币分析师 nestay 在 X 上的一篇文章，从历史上看，10 月份的前两周在复苏之前会出现波动和看似低迷的情况。

The 2021, 2023, and 2024 price actions were compared. In each of these cases, the market structure turned bearish before a bullish trend was established in the second half of the month.

对 2021 年、2023 年和 2024 年的价格走势进行了比较。在每一个案例中，市场结构在下半月建立看涨趋势之前都转为看跌。

This might encourage the idea of buying the dip. Now, whether Bitcoin can trend as strongly as it did in the previous cycle is unknown, but long-term holders would likely prefer to HODL than to sell in the face of disappointing Bitcoin performances.

这可能会鼓励逢低买入的想法。现在，比特币的走势是否能像上一个周期那样强劲尚不得而知，但面对令人失望的比特币表现，长期持有者可能更愿意持有而不是出售。