Bitcoin (BTC) Golden Cross Promises Another 45–60% Price Rally

Bitcoin (BTC) will likely confirm a “golden cross” on its daily chart by the end of May, a technical pattern whose occurrences in recent years often preceded rallies.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin is nearing a technical pattern known as a “golden cross,” which in recent years has been followed by 45–60% price rallies.

Rising M2 supply and easing trade tensions are among the macroeconomic factors that support a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.

However, a technical divergence and overbought conditions suggest there’s still a risk of the BTC price falling below $100,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) is set to confirm a “golden cross” on its daily chart by the end of May, a technical pattern whose occurrences in recent years have often been followed by substantial price rallies.

As of May 20, the cryptocurrency's 50-day simple moving average (50-day SMA; the red wave) is closely approaching a close above its 200-day SMA (the blue wave) for the first time since October 2024, forming the golden cross.

The last time the SMA(50) crossed above SMA(200) in October 2023, it was followed by a 60% rally in BTC price, which also coincided with the reelection of Donald Trump as the U.S. president.

Later, in October, the golden cross led to a 45% price rally amid Bitcoin ETF euphoria. A similar instance in September 2021 resulted in 50% gains for BTC after it painted the SMA crossover.

Bitcoin golden crosses can fail

It’s important to note that relying solely on past successes of indicators might not guarantee future results.

For instance, in February 2020, a golden cross on Bitcoin’s chart was followed by a 62% price crash, mainly due to the global market rout triggered by COVID-19 lockdowns.

This episode highlights the need to use golden crosses in conjunction with broader technical and macroeconomic indicators while keeping in mind the possibility of unexpected events.

At present, Bitcoin's upcoming golden cross is largely being supported by fundamental trends, which biases the signal towards the bullish side.

Factors such as the increasing M2 money supply and the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions are further fueling predictions of a new all-time high price for Bitcoin.

What’s interesting is that Bitcoin is also now b